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Updated October 22, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: October 27, 2026
As of October 22, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 49.5%, followed by Google at 48%, Qwen at 0.5%. The market has $26.2K in total volume and $9.9K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 49.5% | +7.5 pts | $7.2K |
| 48% | +1.0 pts | $8.5K | |
| Qwen | 0.5% | +0.4 pts | $1.6K |
| Anthropic | 0.5% | +0.4 pts | $1.4K |
| Z.ai | 0.4% | +0.4 pts | $1.4K |
| Tencent | 0.1% | — | $369 |
| DeepSeek | 0.1% | — | $1.1K |
| MiniMax | 0.1% | — | $1.0K |
| Meta | 0.1% | — | $1.0K |
| Xiaomi | <0.1% | — | $1.2K |
| xAI | <0.1% | — | $935 |
| Nvidia | <0.1% | — | $455 |
Total volume $26.2K · 24h volume $9.9K · Liquidity $10.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ OpenAI ■ Google ■ Qwen · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 30, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · OpenAI odds · Anthropic odds · Big Tech odds
As of October 22, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 49.5%, followed by Google at 48%, Qwen at 0.5%. The market has $26.2K in total volume and $9.9K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 27, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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