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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 23.5%, followed by By December 31, 2026 at 2.0%. The market has $57.1K in total volume and $400 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2027 | 23.5% | +1.5 pts | $33.1K |
| By December 31, 2026 | 2.0% | — | $24.0K |
Total volume $57.1K · 24h volume $400 · Liquidity $27.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2027 ■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any orbital data center is successfully launched by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Orbital data center” refers to any spacecraft, satellite, or equivalent technology carrying computing infrastructure that is launched into Earth’s orbit for the purpose of providing data-center, cloud-computing, or artificial intelligence computing services and which includes at least 100 data-center-grade AI accelerators, GPUs, TPUs, or substantially equivalent compute processors, (e.g. NVIDIA H100 GPUs, Google TPUs, or equivalent or successor chips).
“Successfully launched” refers to any launch which successfully places a qualifying orbital data center into Earth’s orbit.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 23.5%, followed by By December 31, 2026 at 2.0%. The market has $57.1K in total volume and $400 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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