Home › Polymarket odds › Geopolitics & World
Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: October 1, 2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 0-5 at 88%, followed by 5-10 at 9.0%, 10-15 at 0.9%. The market has $59.6K in total volume and $2.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | 88% | +3.5 pts | $18.0K |
| 5-10 | 9.0% | -4.5 pts | $16.2K |
| 10-15 | 0.9% | -0.1 pts | $7.0K |
| 15-20 | 0.7% | -0.2 pts | $3.5K |
| 25-30 | 0.7% | +0.1 pts | $7.2K |
| 30+ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $4.3K |
| 20-25 | 0.5% | — | $3.4K |
Total volume $59.6K · 24h volume $2.0K · Liquidity $90.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 0-5 ■ 5-10 ■ 10-15 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Strait of Hormuz odds · Oil & Commodities odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 24, 2026 at 17:11 UTC, the leading outcome is 0-5 at 88%, followed by 5-10 at 9.0%, 10-15 at 0.9%. The market has $59.6K in total volume and $2.0K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-september/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-september/">Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-september.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September? — Polymarket odds”, September 24, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-september/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-september/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-september/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-september.svg" alt="Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog