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Updated September 25, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 11, 2027
As of September 25, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 0.6 – 1.0% at 34%, followed by 0.1 – 0.5% at 28.7%, 1.1 – 1.5% at 27.5%. The market has $95.3K in total volume and $479 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6 – 1.0% | 34% | +10.5 pts | $16.5K |
| 0.1 – 0.5% | 28.7% | +0.1 pts | $8.5K |
| 1.1 – 1.5% | 27.5% | — | $19.4K |
| 1.6 – 2.0% | 5.1% | -0.4 pts | $7.9K |
| <-1.0% | 1.5% | +0.1 pts | $20.5K |
| -0.9 – -0.5% | 1.3% | — | $4.8K |
| -0.4 – 0.0% | 1.1% | +0.1 pts | $5.3K |
| 2.0-2.4% | 1.0% | -0.1 pts | $8.7K |
| 2.5%+ | 0.2% | — | $3.9K |
Total volume $95.3K · 24h volume $479 · Liquidity $8.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 0.6 – 1.0% ■ 0.1 – 0.5% ■ 1.1 – 1.5% · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: China & Taiwan odds · Inflation & CPI odds · US Economy odds · Geopolitics odds
As of September 25, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 0.6 – 1.0% at 34%, followed by 0.1 – 0.5% at 28.7%, 1.1 – 1.5% at 27.5%. The market has $95.3K in total volume and $479 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 11, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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