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Polymarket week in review: September 28 – October 4, 2026

Updating through Sunday · last update September 28, 00:50 UTC

Polymarket in the week of September 28 – October 4, 2026 (so far): the biggest move was MLB: Most Home Runs (Team) — Houston Astros 1.2% → 99.9%+ (+98.8 points). 52 new markets opened in the seven days to September 28.

Biggest risers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
MLB: Most Home Runs (Team)	Houston Astros	1.2%	99.9%+	+98.8 pts
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?	Xiaomi	<0.1%	92.7%	+92.7 pts
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka?	By December 31	5.2%	95.4%	+90.1 pts
Oldenburg Mayoral Election Winner	Jascha Rohr	10.5%	99.9%+	+89.5 pts
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?	Alibaba	6.6%	94.1%	+87.5 pts
MLB Wins Leader (2026)	Sonny Gray	18.5%	99.9%+	+81.5 pts
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?	5.50%	3.2%	80%	+76.8 pts
MLB: Home Runs Leader	Pete Crow-Armstrong	29.5%	99.9%+	+70.5 pts
National Rally Group Seat Count after French Senate Election?	13+	25.5%	96%	+70.5 pts
When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?	No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026	30%	98.9%	+68.9 pts

Biggest fallers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
Who will Trump meet with in September?	Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva	71%	2.1%	-69.0 pts
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?	Moonshot	88%	25.1%	-63.0 pts
Houthi military action against Israel?	By October 31	72%	14%	-58.0 pts
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?	↑ $100	68.5%	13.5%	-55.0 pts
MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals	Texas Rangers	55%	<0.1%	-55.0 pts
What price will Ethereum hit in September?	↑ 2,800	79.5%	27%	-52.5 pts
Who will Trump speak to in September?	Lula da Silva	59%	6.5%	-52.5 pts
Next Romania PM appointed by…?	December 31	90.1%	39.4%	-50.7 pts
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in September 2026?	↓ $760	78%	27.5%	-50.5 pts
Situational Awareness raises new capital?	By October 31	58.5%	12%	-46.5 pts

New markets

→ US Announces Diesel Export ban? By October 31 11.5%
→ Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting? By December 31, 2026 78.5%
→ 'The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore' First Week Album Sales? 100k+ 88%
→ Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place? USA 39.5%
→ Will Bitget resume withdrawals by ___? October 31, 2026 99.8%
→ Taylor Swift "Patient Zero" First Week Streams? 35m+ 65.8%
→ Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 65%
→ "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by October 31? <970m 95.1%
→ iBUYPOWER Masters fl0m's Mythical LAN: Winner Liquid 99.9%+
→ OpenAI resumes training? Not resumed by October 20 30.5%
→ "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office <17m 52.5%
→ Next Claude Sonnet released? September 28 52.5%
→ Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president? By October 15 40.5%
→ Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory Iotova 20-30% 38.5%
→ How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026? 450k to 475k 43.5%

Moves compare the price at the last update with the chart point closest to seven days earlier, across the most-traded long-running markets we track. Live versions: this week's biggest moves and new markets.

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