Home › Polymarket vs Metaculus
Facts checked September 25, 2026 against each platform's own pages, filings and news reports · numbered sources below
Metaculus is not a prediction market: forecasters submit probabilities instead of trading shares, and the site combines them into a Community Prediction, which on yes/no questions is a weighted median of recent forecasts [1]. Many Metaculus tournaments pay cash prizes to the most accurate forecasters [1][2]. Polymarket prices come from real-money trades on an order book, so a price of 37 cents reads as a 37% chance [3][4][5]. Metaculus administrators resolve questions, while Polymarket.com settles markets through the UMA optimistic oracle and Polymarket US resolves its own [1][6][7].
| Polymarket | Metaculus | |
|---|---|---|
| Who runs it | Two products: the international Polymarket.com, and Polymarket US, operated by QCX LLC [8][9] | Metaculus, Inc., a public benefit corporation with a mailing address in Santa Monica, California; Metaculus originated with the scientists Anthony Aguirre and Greg Laughlin [18][19][1] |
| Regulation | Polymarket.com says it is not regulated by the CFTC; Polymarket US is a CFTC designated contract market and clearing organization [8][5] | A forecasting site, not a prediction market by its own description; it says it operates the service in the United States [1][19] |
| Who can use it | Polymarket.com is blocked in 39 countries, including the US, UK, France and Germany; US residents use the separate Polymarket US app (18+, identity check) [10][11][9] | Anyone 13 or older (under the age of majority, with a parent or guardian reviewing the terms), except people on US restricted-party lists; one account per person [19] |
| Money | Polymarket.com: pUSD, a token backed 1:1 by USDC on Polygon; Polymarket US: US dollars [4][5] | No trading: forecasters enter probabilities rather than buying shares, and many tournaments pay cash prizes [1][2] |
| Trading fees | Polymarket.com: takers pay shares x rate x p x (1-p), with a rate from 0 (geopolitics) to 0.07 (crypto); Polymarket US: takers pay 0.0695 x contracts x p x (1-p) and makers get a rebate [12][13] | None, since nothing is traded; in a tournament your share of the prize pool is proportional to your summed Peer scores squared, and a negative sum wins nothing [20] |
| Deposits and withdrawals | Polymarket.com: crypto deposits from several chains, no Polymarket fee; Polymarket US: card or ACH up to $50,000 a day, wire from $1,000, free withdrawals [14][12][15][16] | Its terms and FAQ describe no deposits; tournaments ending after June 1, 2025 pay no prizes below $50, and winnings can be donated to listed non-profits [19][1][20] |
| Limits | Polymarket US sets no trading size limits [17] | Not stated in the documents we checked |
| Markets | Politics, sports, crypto, economics, culture, weather, tech and more [5][12] | Questions rather than markets (yes/no, numeric, date and multiple choice), more than 25,500 so far, focused on science, technology, effective altruism, AI, health and geopolitics; any user can propose one for moderators to review [1][21] |
| How markets settle | Polymarket.com: UMA optimistic oracle with a 2-hour challenge window and a UMA vote on disputes; Polymarket US: the exchange applies each market's listed sources [6][7] | Only Metaculus administrators resolve questions: Yes, No, a value, Ambiguous or Annulled (the last two are not scored); a wrong resolution can be re-resolved, and some high-impact questions name a Resolution Council [1] |
Related: How Polymarket markets resolve · How accurate is Polymarket? Our calibration study
All current prices: Polymarket odds today · fees on a real order: Polymarket fee calculator · where Polymarket is available
No, by its own description. Prediction markets use real or virtual currency to buy and sell shares, while Metaculus asks forecasters for probabilities and combines them; on yes/no questions the Community Prediction is a weighted median of recent forecasts. [1]
Yes, in tournaments with a prize pool: cash prizes go to the most accurate forecasters, and each forecaster's share is proportional to their summed Peer scores squared. The tournaments page listed prize pools from $3,000 to $50,000 in July 2026; some tournaments, and all Question Series, have none. [1][20][2]
On Metaculus only administrators resolve questions, and a resolution found to be wrong can be re-resolved. Polymarket.com uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose an outcome by posting a bond, typically $750 in pUSD, there is a 2-hour challenge period, and a second dispute goes to a vote of UMA token holders. On Polymarket US the exchange resolves markets from the sources listed in each market's rules. [1][6][7]
The figures each site publishes cover different questions, so they are not a head-to-head test. Metaculus reports a Brier score of 0.108 for its Community Prediction on questions that resolved in 2021 (lower is better). Polymarket's accuracy page showed on September 25, 2026 that the leading outcome one month before resolution was right 90.2% of the time. [1][22]
Metaculus suits practicing forecasting without trading, building a scored track record and reading community forecasts on questions over many timescales, with a focus on science, technology, AI, health and geopolitics. Polymarket suits trading real-money positions on politics, sports, crypto, economics and more; US residents use the separate Polymarket US app. [1][5][11]
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