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10 famous Polymarket markets and how they resolved
Updated September 25, 2026 · facts checked against the dated sources listed below
These ten Polymarket markets, from a 2024 Fed decision to a 2026 World Cup upset, show how prices behave before big news and how the written rules, not the headlines, decide who gets paid. Each case gives the question, dated prices from Polymarket's data or news reports, what happened, how it resolved and one lesson. This is educational information, not financial advice.
1. Fed decision, September 2024: the half-point cut
The four-outcome market asked how the Fed would move rates at its September 17–18, 2024 meeting, judged by the upper bound of the target range in the FOMC statement. A cut of 50 basis points or more traded at 7.5 cents on September 11 and at 41.95 cents at 18:00 UTC on September 18, the minute the 2 p.m. Eastern statement came out; a 25-point cut stood at 58.1 cents.
The Fed cut by half a point, to 4.75% to 5%. The 50-point outcome traded at 99.75 cents a minute later and resolved Yes at 21:09 UTC, about three hours after the statement. The event traded about $58.7 million.
Lesson: a 42% outcome is a near coin flip, not a long shot, and a price tied to one official document settles within a minute of its release.
2. The 2024 presidential election and the French whale
The “Presidential Election Winner 2024” event held one Yes/No market per candidate, and its rules waited until the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC had all called the race. At 12:15 p.m. Eastern on November 4, 2024, it had Trump at 56.3% and Harris at 43.8%, with $3.13 billion traded, The Block reported. In October, Polymarket said four accounts holding about $28.6 million of pro-Trump positions belonged to one French trader and that its investigation had found no sign of manipulation.
Trump won. CoinDesk had him at 98.8% in the early hours of November 6, and his market resolved Yes at 15:17 UTC that day; the event ended with about $3.69 billion traded. Chainalysis estimated the French trader's net profit at $78.7 million across nine accounts.
Lesson: a price backed by billions still said 56%, not a sure thing, and a whale's one-sided bet deserves a closer look before you read it as manipulation or as news.
3. Ukraine minerals deal, March 2025: a Yes before any deal
The market asked whether the United States and Ukraine would agree to a deal explicitly involving Ukrainian rare earths between February 2 and March 31, 2025, going by official information from both governments; an announced deal counted. Polymarket had posted a clarification that it was too early to resolve, as the countries had not agreed.
Between March 24 and 25, Yes jumped from 9% to 100%, and the market, with about $7.1 million traded, resolved Yes after a vote that users said was swung by a large UMA token holder. Polymarket called it “unprecedented” but said it was not a market failure and would not issue refunds, The Block reported. The two governments signed an agreement creating a joint investment fund on April 30, 2025, a month after the deadline.
Lesson: once UMA token holders vote, the result stands, and Polymarket's help center says it cannot reverse it; in a disputed market you trade the vote as well as the news.
“Who will be the next Pope?” resolved to the next person elected bishop of Rome, based mainly on official Vatican information. Ahead of the result, traders gave Pietro Parolin 28%, Luis Antonio Tagle 20% and Robert Francis Prevost about 1%, CoinDesk reported. Prevost traded at 1.75 cents at 16:00 UTC on May 8, minutes before white smoke rose at 6:07 p.m. Rome time, and dipped below 1 cent in the hour that followed.
The cardinals had chosen Prevost, who took the name Leo XIV. His market jumped to 99.85 cents at 17:15 UTC and resolved Yes at 22:27 UTC after one undisputed proposal; the event traded about $30.1 million.
Lesson: in a wide field, 1 or 2 cents is a small price, not a zero chance, and favorites at 28% and 20% still lose most of the time.
The market asked whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy would be photographed or videotaped wearing a suit between May 22 and June 30, 2025, with “a consensus of credible reporting” as its source. At the NATO summit in The Hague in late June he wore a black jacket and matching trousers that the BBC and the New York Post, among others, called a suit.
A Yes proposal was disputed and the question went to a vote of UMA token holders; by July 7, Yes had fallen to 4 cents from 19 cents, CoinDesk reported. After a series of disputes the market resolved No at 00:30 UTC on July 9, with about $242 million traded.
Lesson: a rule that hinges on an undefined word leaves the final say to the voters, so price the chance of a dispute, not only what the photos show.
6. Bitcoin's October 2025 crash: a one-minute wick
“What price will Bitcoin hit in October?” was a ladder of Yes/No markets. Its $104,000 rung paid Yes if any one-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle in October had a low at or below that price; other exchanges and pairs did not count. It traded at 18.5 cents at 20:50 UTC on October 10, 2025.
After President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, more than $19 billion of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated, CoinDesk reported. On Binance, BTC/USDT dipped below $104,000 in the 21:19 UTC candle and hit exactly $102,000 a minute later, yet closed the day at $112,774.50. The $104,000 market was at 99.5 cents by 21:20 UTC and resolved Yes at 23:58 UTC, while the $100,000 market, briefly at 50 cents, resolved No after the month ended. The event traded about $43.6 million.
Lesson: “hit” markets pay on a single print on one named venue, even if the price recovers minutes later.
7. Aspinall vs. Gane, October 2025: a 50-50 payout
The UFC 321 heavyweight title fight in Abu Dhabi on October 25, 2025 had a two-way market with ESPN as its main source. A draw, a bout that is not scored, a cancellation or a postponement past November 1 meant a 50-50 result. At 20:40 UTC, Tom Aspinall traded at 76.5 cents and Ciryl Gane at 23.5 cents.
Gane accidentally poked Aspinall's right eye at 4:35 of the first round, Aspinall could not continue, and the bout was ruled a no contest, ESPN reported. Both prices were near 50 cents by 20:55 UTC, and under that rule the market resolved 50-50 at 23:09 UTC after one undisputed proposal; about $3.2 million had traded.
Lesson: 50-50 is a written outcome, not a refund. Each share paid 50 cents, so Aspinall buyers at 76.5 cents lost 26.5 cents a share and Gane buyers at 23.5 cents gained 26.5.
The market listed people and things, from “Artificial Intelligence” to Jensen Huang, plus a catch-all, and followed TIME's cover, counting a name only if it was explicitly named. “Artificial Intelligence” led at 69 cents at 18:00 UTC on December 10, 2025, then fell from 52.5 cents to 14 cents between 21:30 and 21:40 UTC, on the day images of the cover leaked, TechCrunch reported.
TIME named the “Architects of AI” its Person of the Year on December 11. Polymarket said that would not qualify for its “AI” outcome because AI itself was not named, Fast Company reported. The catch-all, labeled “Architects of AI / Other”, resolved Yes at 16:17 UTC, while Huang and Sam Altman, both featured by TIME, resolved No. The event traded about $55.5 million.
Lesson: the exact words decide. A title about AI did not pay the “AI” outcome, and people featured as part of a group did not win as individuals.
“Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?” required “a military offensive intended to establish control” over part of Venezuela, judged by a consensus of credible sources. On January 3, 2026, when US forces captured Nicolás Maduro in Caracas in the predawn hours, Yes went from 2.5 cents at 04:00 UTC to about 60 cents at 08:00 UTC.
Polymarket said the “snatch-and-extract mission” did not qualify as an invasion; Slate reported its reasoning that the United States did not seize or hold territory. Yes was back to 5.4 cents at 14:00 UTC on January 5, and the market resolved No at 07:41 UTC on February 1 after one undisputed proposal, with about $8.4 million traded.
Lesson: read the operative words, not the headline: a raid that dominated the news did not meet a rule written around control of territory.
Polymarket priced the match as three separate markets: a Spain win, a Cabo Verde win and a draw, each counting only 90 minutes plus stoppage time. For the teams' World Cup opener in Atlanta on June 15, 2026, Spain traded at 90.5 cents and the draw at 7.05 cents at the 16:00 UTC kickoff.
Cabo Verde, making its World Cup debut, held Spain to 0-0, a “stunning upset” in the words of the Associated Press. Spain still traded at 58.5 cents at 17:40 UTC and half a cent by 18:00 UTC. The Spain market resolved No at 19:58 UTC, less than four hours after kickoff, and the draw resolved Yes at 20:24 UTC, each after one undisputed proposal; the event traded about $32.5 million.
Lesson: a 90-cent favorite still fails about one time in ten, and in a three-way market a draw sinks both win bets.
Market data: Fed Interest Rates: September 2024 — Polymarket Gamma API, accessed . Supports: Four outcomes, the upper-bound rule and the FOMC statement as source; the 50+ bps decrease market resolved Yes at 21:09 UTC on September 18, 2024; about $58.7 million traded
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement — Federal Reserve Board, . Supports: Released at 2:00 p.m. EDT; target range lowered by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent
Market data: Presidential Election Winner 2024 — Polymarket Gamma API, accessed . Supports: One market per candidate; resolves once the AP, Fox News and NBC call the race; the Trump market resolved Yes at 15:17 UTC on November 6, 2024; about $3.69 billion traded
Market data: Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? — Polymarket Gamma API, accessed . Supports: Rules: a deal explicitly involving rare earths between February 2 and March 31, 2025, announcements count, official government information as source; resolved Yes at 00:21 UTC on March 25, 2025; about $7.1 million traded
How Are Markets Disputed? — Polymarket Help Center, . Supports: Polymarket cannot alter or reverse resolutions once finalized by UMA; UMA token holders vote on disputes
Resolution — Polymarket Documentation, accessed . Supports: A second dispute goes to a UMA token-holder vote; about two hours after an undisputed proposal, four to six days if disputed; 50-50 pays $0.50 per token
Market data: Who will be the next Pope? — Polymarket Gamma API, accessed . Supports: Rules and the No new Pope in 2025 outcome; the Prevost market resolved Yes at 22:27 UTC on May 8, 2025 after one proposal; about $30.1 million traded
Leo XIV is the new Pope — Vatican News, . Supports: Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost elected Pope, taking the name Leo XIV
Market data: Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? — Polymarket Gamma API, accessed . Supports: Rules: photographed or videotaped in a suit between May 22 and June 30, 2025, a consensus of credible reporting as source; repeated disputes in the proposal history; resolved No at 00:30 UTC on July 9, 2025; about $242 million traded
Market data: What price will Bitcoin hit in October? (2025) — Polymarket Gamma API, accessed . Supports: Binance BTC/USDT one-minute low rule; the $104,000 market resolved Yes at 23:58 UTC on October 10, 2025 and the $100,000 market No; about $43.6 million traded
Market data: UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane — Polymarket Gamma API, accessed . Supports: Rules: 50-50 for a draw, a bout not scored, canceled or postponed after November 1, 2025, ESPN as primary source; resolved 50-50 at 23:09 UTC on October 25, 2025 after one proposal; about $3.2 million traded
Price history: Gane, October 25, 2025 — Polymarket CLOB API, accessed . Supports: 23.5 cents at 20:40 UTC and 49.5 cents at 20:55 UTC on October 25, 2025
Market data: Time 2025 Person of the Year — Polymarket Gamma API, accessed . Supports: Rules follow TIME's cover and require the term to be explicitly named; Architects of AI / Other resolved Yes at 16:17 UTC on December 11, 2025; Artificial Intelligence, Jensen Huang and Sam Altman resolved No; about $55.5 million traded
Market data: Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? — Polymarket Gamma API, accessed . Supports: Rules: a military offensive intended to establish control, a consensus of credible sources; resolved No at 07:41 UTC on February 1, 2026 after one proposal; about $8.4 million traded
Market data: Spain vs. Cabo Verde (FIFA World Cup, June 15, 2026) — Polymarket Gamma API, accessed . Supports: Rules: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only; kickoff 16:00 UTC; Spain resolved No at 19:58 UTC and the draw Yes at 20:24 UTC on June 15, 2026, each after one proposal; about $32.5 million traded
Price history: Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? — Polymarket CLOB API, accessed . Supports: 90.5 cents at 16:00 UTC, 58.5 cents at 17:40 UTC and 0.5 cents at 18:00 UTC on June 15, 2026
The 2024 presidential winner market, with about $3.69 billion traded, according to Polymarket's data on September 25, 2026. The Zelenskyy suit market came next, at about $242 million.
Can Polymarket reverse a resolution?
No. Its help center says it cannot alter or reverse a resolution once UMA has finalized it, and after the Ukraine minerals market it said there would be no refunds.
What does a 50-50 resolution pay?
Each Yes or No share redeems for $0.50, according to Polymarket's documentation, so whether you gain or lose depends on what you paid.
How long does a disputed market take?
Polymarket's documentation puts an undisputed result at about two hours after it is proposed and a disputed one at four to six days. The Zelenskyy suit market, disputed repeatedly, resolved more than eight days after its June 30 end date.