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Explainer · live examples updated September 24, 2026, twice a day
Deadline markets ask whether something happens by a series of dates — “by September 30”, “by December 31”, and so on. Each date is its own yes/no market, which resolves Yes if the event happens on or before it.
Later deadlines include the earlier ones, so their prices should be at least as high. The gap between two deadlines is the market's estimate that the event happens in between.
By December 31 5.5% · 2 live outcomes · $486.1K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. …”
By December 31 3.5% · 2 live outcomes · $375.0K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the …”
By December 31 61.8% · 3 live outcomes · $242.3K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: Iran odds · Trump odds · Geopolitics odds
Each deadline is a separate yes/no market that resolves Yes if the event, as defined in the rules, happens on or before that date; otherwise it resolves No when the date passes.
Because it includes every earlier date: if the event happens by September 30, it has also happened by December 31.
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