Explainer · live examples updated September 24, 2026, twice a day
Awards markets ask who wins a prize — an Oscar category, a Nobel Prize, the Ballon d'Or, an MTV award. Each nominee or candidate is its own yes/no outcome, and exactly one wins.
Prices react to nominations, precursor awards, betting-market leaks and insider chatter, and settle when the winner is announced.
Harry Kane 58.2% · 19 live outcomes · $197.3K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).”
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms 14.4% · 31 live outcomes · $77.3K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that …”
Nuevayol (Bad Bunny) 41.5% · 7 live outcomes · $20.8K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Latin. If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Latin when the 2026 nominees were …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: Awards odds · Pop Culture odds
On the official announcement by the awarding body, as the rules specify, including how shared or unlisted winners are handled.
Prices are probabilities, not certainties: a 60% favourite still loses about four times in ten.
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