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Resolved market · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: July 1, 2027
This market has closed. At the last update (November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC) it had settled on September 30, Super Heavy booster explodes?, Successful splash down?, October 31, September 28, September 29, after $795.6K of total trading volume.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 100% | +15.4 pts | $68.7K |
| Super Heavy booster explodes? | 100% | +17.9 pts | $64.9K |
| Successful splash down? | 100% | +11.9 pts | $7.5K |
| October 31 | 100% | +2.5 pts | $3.3K |
| September 28 | 100% | +46.9 pts | $1.3K |
| September 29 | 100% | +28.9 pts | $705 |
| Chopsticks catch Starship? | 0.0% | -1.1 pts | $478.4K |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $62.5K |
| September 15 | 0.0% | — | $47.5K |
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 0.0% | -1.7 pts | $22.4K |
| September 19 | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $16.9K |
| September 26 | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $15.0K |
| August 22 | 0.0% | — | $6.6K |
Total volume $795.6K · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $0. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
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This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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This market has closed. At the last update (November 9, 2026 at 00:50 UTC) it had settled on September 30, Super Heavy booster explodes?, Successful splash down?, October 31, September 28, September 29, after $795.6K of total trading volume.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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