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Updated September 24, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is October 31 at 97.5%, followed by Super Heavy booster explodes? at 90.5%, September 30 at 81.8%. The market has $716.4K in total volume and $4.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 97.5% | — | $2.5K |
| Super Heavy booster explodes? | 90.5% | — | $39.2K |
| September 30 | 81.8% | +5.9 pts | $38.8K |
| Successful splash down? | 81.5% | -3.0 pts | $3.1K |
| Chopsticks catch Starship? | 2.7% | +0.2 pts | $464.9K |
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 1.1% | -0.1 pts | $19.8K |
| September 26 | 0.2% | -0.3 pts | $14.6K |
| August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $62.5K |
| September 15 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $47.5K |
| September 19 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $16.9K |
| August 22 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $6.6K |
Total volume $716.4K · 24h volume $4.5K · Liquidity $28.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ October 31 ■ Super Heavy booster explodes? ■ September 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of September 24, 2026 at 15:51 UTC, the leading outcome is October 31 at 97.5%, followed by Super Heavy booster explodes? at 90.5%, September 30 at 81.8%. The market has $716.4K in total volume and $4.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarised on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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