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Polymarket week in review: September 21 – September 27, 2026

Updating through Sunday · last update September 24, 00:50 UTC

Polymarket in the week of September 21 – September 27, 2026 (so far): the biggest move was "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30? — 940 - 950m 64.5% → 0.5% (-64.0 points). 59 new markets opened in the seven days to September 24.

Biggest risers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?	Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani	13.5%	69.5%	+56.0 pts
What price will Solana hit in September?	↑ 120	13%	61.2%	+48.2 pts
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?	↑ 110	33%	77%	+44.0 pts
46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament Winner	Uzbekistan	29%	70.5%	+41.5 pts
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen?	September 23	33%	69%	+36.0 pts
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?	↑ 87,500	7.5%	40.5%	+33.0 pts
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?	↑ 90,000	38.5%	71.5%	+33.0 pts
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?	≥ 4.5%	16.6%	47.9%	+31.4 pts
Venezuela leader end of 2026?	Delcy Rodríguez	11%	39.5%	+28.5 pts
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?	3 (75 bps)	16.6%	36%	+19.4 pts

Biggest fallers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?	940 - 950m	64.5%	0.5%	-64.0 pts
What price will XRP hit in September?	↓ 1.20	53.5%	5.5%	-48.1 pts
Next Prime Minister of Romania?	Alexandru Nazare	52.6%	16.2%	-36.4 pts
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?	↓ 2,250	68%	34%	-34.0 pts
What price will Solana hit in 2026?	↓ 90	71.5%	37.5%	-34.0 pts
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in September 2026?	↓ $4,200	71.5%	40.5%	-31.0 pts
What price will XRP hit in 2026?	↓ 1.20	78%	51%	-27.0 pts
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk?	By December 31	24.5%	0.0%	-24.5 pts
Los Angeles Mayoral Election	Karen Bass	64.5%	41.5%	-23.0 pts
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?	Mohammed bin Salman	70.5%	49.5%	-21.0 pts

New markets

→ US-Iran ceasefire continues? Through September 25 96.5%
→ Trump renames AI by September 30? Yes 30.5%
→ CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House? By October 31 96.3%
→ US Announces Diesel Export ban? By October 31 20.5%
→ US-Yemen ceasefire continues? Through September 22 98.4%
→ What will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival? Melania 52.5%
→ # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? 60-70M 75.3%
→ Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting? By December 31, 2026 77.5%
→ Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia? September 23 63.5%
→ Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place? USA 43.5%
→ Russia military action against EU country? By December 31 20%
→ Republican House odds hit __ by October 31? ↓ 8% 86.5%
→ VMA Video of the Year 2026 The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift) 64.5%
→ Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut? 1480+ 67.5%
→ Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31? ↓ 35% 95.2%

Moves compare the price at the last update with the chart point closest to seven days earlier, across the most-traded long-running markets we track. Live versions: this week's biggest moves and new markets.

Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All weekly recaps