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2026 midterm election forecast from Polymarket odds

Updated September 24, 2026 at 18:30 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026

Polymarket odds for the November 3, 2026 midterms: Democratic Party 92.5% to win the House; Democratic Party 62.5% to win the Senate. The most likely balance of power is Democrats Sweep (63.5%). Toss-ups (no one priced at 60% or more): 2 Senate races, 5 House districts and 2 governor races.

Balance of power

OutcomeChance
Democrats Sweep63.5%
D Senate, R House1.1%
R Senate, D House30.5%
Republicans Sweep7.5%

2026 Senate map by rating

Alaska: Mary Peltola 73.5%, Lean (Mary Peltola)AKMaine: Troy Jackson 67.5%, Lean DemocratMEVermont: no Senate race in 2026VTNew Hampshire: Chris Pappas 84.5%, Likely DemocratNHWashington: no Senate race in 2026WAIdaho: Jim Risch 94.6%, Likely RepublicanIDMontana: Kurt Alme 89%, Likely RepublicanMTNorth Dakota: no Senate race in 2026NDMinnesota: Peggy Flanagan 92.5%, Likely DemocratMNIllinois: Juliana Stratton 97.9%, Safe DemocratILWisconsin: no Senate race in 2026WIMichigan: Abdul El-Sayed 71.5%, Lean DemocratMINew York: no Senate race in 2026NYRhode Island: Jack Reed 99.5%, Safe DemocratRIMassachusetts: Ed Markey 97.9%, Safe DemocratMAOregon: Jeff Merkley 98%, Safe DemocratORNevada: no Senate race in 2026NVWyoming: Harriet Hageman 96.9%, Safe RepublicanWYSouth Dakota: Mike Rounds 95.2%, Safe RepublicanSDIowa: Ashley Hinson 54.5%, Toss-upIAIndiana: no Senate race in 2026INOhio: Sherrod Brown 58.5%, Toss-upOHPennsylvania: no Senate race in 2026PANew Jersey: Cory Booker 96.8%, Safe DemocratNJConnecticut: no Senate race in 2026CTCalifornia: no Senate race in 2026CAUtah: no Senate race in 2026UTColorado: John Hickenlooper 96.2%, Safe DemocratCONebraska: Pete Ricketts 68.5%, Lean RepublicanNEMissouri: no Senate race in 2026MOKentucky: Andy Barr 95.9%, Safe RepublicanKYWest Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito 98.5%, Safe RepublicanWVVirginia: Mark Warner 97.5%, Safe DemocratVAMaryland: no Senate race in 2026MDDelaware: Democrat 98.2%, Safe DemocratDEArizona: no Senate race in 2026AZNew Mexico: Ben Ray Luján 97%, Safe DemocratNMKansas: Roger Marshall 69.5%, Lean RepublicanKSArkansas: Tom Cotton 94.7%, Likely RepublicanARTennessee: Bill Hagerty 96.6%, Safe RepublicanTNNorth Carolina: Roy Cooper 94.5%, Likely DemocratNCSouth Carolina: Darline Graham Nordone 86.5%, Likely RepublicanSCOklahoma: Kevin Hern 96.6%, Safe RepublicanOKLouisiana: Julia Letlow 93%, Likely RepublicanLAMississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith 92%, Likely RepublicanMSAlabama: Barry Moore 96%, Safe RepublicanALGeorgia: Jon Ossoff 94.5%, Likely DemocratGAHawaii: no Senate race in 2026HITexas: James Talarico 60.5%, Lean DemocratTXFlorida: Ashley Moody 91.5%, Likely RepublicanFL
Safe Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss-up Lean Republican Likely Republican Safe Republican No race

Senate

Democratic Party 62.5% · Republican Party 37.5%. Closest races right now; every race is in the 2026 Senate forecast.

StateDemocratRepublicanRating
IowaJosh Turek 46.5%Ashley Hinson 54.5%Toss-up
OhioSherrod Brown 58.5%Jon Husted 39.5%Toss-up
TexasJames Talarico 60.5%Ken Paxton 39.5%Lean Democrat
MaineTroy Jackson 67.5%Susan Collins 32.5%Lean Democrat
NebraskaDemocrat 0.4%Pete Ricketts 68.5%Lean Republican
KansasAdam Hamilton 30.5%Roger Marshall 69.5%Lean Republican
MichiganAbdul El-Sayed 71.5%Mike Rogers 28.5%Lean Democrat
AlaskaMary Peltola 73.5% · Sen. Dan Sullivan 26.5% (no party labels in this market)Lean (Mary Peltola)

House

Democratic Party 92.5% · Republican Party 7.5%. Closest races right now; every race is in the 2026 House forecast.

DistrictDemocratRepublicanRating
MI-04Sean McCann 48.5%Bill Huizenga 52.5%Toss-up
FL-22Pia Dandiya 54%Casey Askar 44.5%Toss-up
IA-02Lindsay James 54%Joe Mitchell 45%Toss-up
MI-07William Lawrence 56.5%Tom Barrett 43.5%Toss-up
VA-01Shannon Taylor 41.5%Rob Wittman 58.5%Toss-up
NC-11Jamie Ager 61.5%Jennifer Balkcom 36.5%Lean Democrat
TX-23Katy Padilla Stout 39.5%Brandon Herrera 61.5%Lean Republican
ME-02Matthew Dunlap 30.5%Paul LePage 62%Lean Republican
CO-03Dwayne Romero 37.5%Jeff Hurd 62.5%Lean Republican
NC-01Don Davis 62.5%Laurie Buckhout 37.5%Lean Democrat
PA-01Bob Harvie 37.5%Brian Fitzpatrick 62.5%Lean Republican
MI-10Christina Hines 65.5%Mike Bouchard 32.5%Lean Democrat

Governor

Closest races right now; every race is in the 2026 governor forecast.

StateDemocratRepublicanRating
NevadaAaron Ford 49%Joe Lombardo 50%Toss-up
GeorgiaKeisha Lance Bottoms 54.5%Rick Jackson 45.5%Toss-up
OhioAmy Acton 61.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 38.5%Lean Democrat
KansasCindy Holscher 27.5%Ty Masterson 73.5%Lean Republican
TexasGina Hinojosa 25.5%Greg Abbott 74.3%Lean Republican
FloridaDavid Jolly 24.5%Byron Donalds 76%Lean Republican
AlaskaJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 76.1% · Bernadette Wilson 18.5% (no party labels in this market)Lean (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)
IowaRob Sand 82.5%Zach Lahn 16%Likely Democrat

Every race: Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast · 2026 elections by state · Senate control on Polymarket vs Kalshi

Frequently asked questions

Who is favoured to win the 2026 midterms?

Polymarket odds for the November 3, 2026 midterms: Democratic Party 92.5% to win the House; Democratic Party 62.5% to win the Senate. The most likely balance of power is Democrats Sweep (63.5%). Toss-ups (no one priced at 60% or more): 2 Senate races, 5 House districts and 2 governor races.

When are the 2026 midterm elections?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The markets settle when results are certified under each market's rules, which can take longer than election night.

Which 2026 races are toss-ups?

Senate: Iowa, Ohio; House: MI-04, FL-22, IA-02, MI-07, VA-01; Governor: Nevada, Georgia.

How are these ratings set?

From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls or a model.

Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Free JSON: /api/v1/midterms-2026.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.