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Updated November 9, 2026 at 02:01 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for the November 3, 2026 midterms: . Toss-ups (no one priced at 60% or more): 0 Senate races, 0 House districts and 0 governor races.
Closest races right now; every race is in the 2026 Senate forecast.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Mary Peltola 98.4% | Sen. Dan Sullivan 1.6% | Safe Democrat |
| Mississippi | Scott Colom 98.7% | Cindy Hyde-Smith 1.1% | Safe Democrat |
Closest races right now; every race is in the 2026 House forecast.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC-03 | Raymond Smith Jr. 85.2% | Greg Murphy 14.9% | Likely Democrat |
| AK-AL | Democrat <0.1% | Republican 91.1% | Likely Republican |
| LA-06 | Democrat 8.2% | Republican 92.3% | Likely Republican |
| LA-05 | Democrat 5.8% | Republican 94.2% | Likely Republican |
| TN-04 | Victoria Broderick 95.3% | Scott DesJarlais 4.5% | Safe Democrat |
| NC-05 | Chuck Hubbard 96.6% | Virginia Foxx 3.0% | Safe Democrat |
| MN-01 | Jake Johnson 96.7% | Brad Finstad 3.3% | Safe Democrat |
| CA-23 | Tessa Lynn Hodge 2.7% | Jay Obernolte 97.3% | Safe Republican |
| WA-05 | Carmela Conroy 1.9% | Michael Baumgartner 97.5% | Safe Republican |
| FL-27 | Eliott Rodriguez 2.1% | María Elvira Salazar 97.9% | Safe Republican |
| CA-04 | Democrat 98% | Republican 0.1% | Safe Democrat |
| AZ-02 | Jonathan Nez 1.0% | Eli Crane 98.4% | Safe Republican |
Closest races right now; every race is in the 2026 governor forecast.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Cindy Holscher 99.3% | Ty Masterson 0.2% | Safe Democrat |
| Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 99.4% · Bernadette Wilson 0.4% (no party labels in this market) | Safe (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins) | |
Turn a poll lead into odds: poll margin to win probability calculator.
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Every race: Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast · 2026 elections by state · Senate control on Polymarket vs Kalshi
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Polymarket View, “2026 midterm election forecast from Polymarket odds”, November 9, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/midterm-forecast-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for the November 3, 2026 midterms: . Toss-ups (no one priced at 60% or more): 0 Senate races, 0 House districts and 0 governor races.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The markets settle when results are certified under each market's rules, which can take longer than election night.
Senate: none; House: none; Governor: none.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls or a model.
Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Free JSON: /api/v1/midterms-2026.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.