Home › 2026 Midterms › By state

2026 election odds by state

Updated October 15, 2026 · refreshed twice a day

StateSenateGovernorHouse districts
AlabamaSafe RepublicanLikely Republican7
AlaskaLean (Mary Peltola)Lean (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)1
Arizona—Likely Democrat9
ArkansasLikely RepublicanSafe Republican4
California—Safe (Xavier Becerra)51
ColoradoSafe DemocratSafe Democrat8
Connecticut—Safe Democrat5
DelawareSafe Democrat—1
FloridaLikely RepublicanLean Republican28
GeorgiaSafe DemocratToss-up14
Hawaii—Safe Democrat2
IdahoSafe RepublicanSafe Republican2
IllinoisSafe DemocratSafe Democrat17
Indiana——9
IowaToss-upLikely Democrat4
KansasLean RepublicanLean Republican4
KentuckySafe Republican—6
LouisianaLikely Republican—6
MaineToss-upSafe Democrat2
Maryland—Safe Democrat8
MassachusettsSafe DemocratSafe Democrat9
MichiganLean DemocratSafe Democrat13
MinnesotaLikely DemocratSafe Democrat8
MississippiLikely Republican—4
Missouri——8
MontanaLikely Republican—2
NebraskaLean RepublicanLikely Republican3
Nevada—Toss-up4
New HampshireLikely DemocratLikely Republican2
New JerseySafe Democrat—12
New MexicoSafe DemocratLikely Democrat3
New York—Likely Democrat26
North CarolinaSafe Democrat—14
North Dakota——1
OhioLean DemocratLean Democrat15
OklahomaSafe RepublicanLikely Republican5
OregonSafe DemocratLean Democrat6
Pennsylvania—Safe Democrat17
Rhode IslandSafe DemocratSafe Democrat2
South CarolinaLikely RepublicanLikely Republican7
South DakotaLikely RepublicanSafe Republican1
TennesseeLikely RepublicanLikely Republican9
TexasLean DemocratLean Republican38
Utah——4
Vermont—Lean Republican1
VirginiaSafe Democrat—11
Washington——10
West VirginiaSafe Republican—2
Wisconsin—Likely Democrat8
WyomingSafe RepublicanSafe Republican1

National picture: 2026 Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast

Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.