Home › Guides › 2026 midterm election night: what to watch on Polymarket
Updated September 25, 2026 · facts checked against the dated sources listed below
On Tuesday, November 3, 2026, polls close over seven hours from 6 o'clock Eastern, and Polymarket's midterm markets can move sharply as votes are counted. A call on TV is not a settlement: the control markets resolve on official information and a consensus of credible reporting, and Senate race markets wait for the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC to agree, or for certification.
Times are the latest scheduled closings in Eastern Standard Time, as compiled by 270toWin and matched by The Green Papers. Split states appear twice, voters in line at closing can still vote, and North Dakota, where the two sources disagree, is left out.
6 p.m.: Eastern-time Indiana and Kentucky.
7 p.m.: Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, Eastern-time Florida and Central-time Indiana and Kentucky.
7:30 p.m.: North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.
8 p.m.: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (many polling places close an hour earlier), New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Eastern-time Michigan and Central-time Florida, Kansas, South Dakota and Texas.
8:30 p.m.: Arkansas.
9 p.m.: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Central-time Michigan and Mountain-time Kansas, South Dakota and Texas.
10 p.m.: Montana, Nevada, Utah and Mountain-time Idaho and Oregon.
11 p.m.: California, Washington and Pacific-time Idaho and Oregon.
Midnight: Hawaii and the Alaska-time part of Alaska.
1 a.m.: the Hawaii-Aleutian-time part of Alaska.
Results begin as polls close: AP's reporters phone in raw totals as soon as they are available, and networks keep an unenforced pledge not to project a state before most of its polls close. California's counties report from 11 p.m. Eastern, at least every two hours.
Some states count for days. California counts mail ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive by November 10 and certifies its results on December 11. On June 29, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that states may count such late-arriving ballots; Votebeat counted 14 states and the District of Columbia with grace periods.
See also: 2026 elections by state · 2026 midterms: date and odds
We read both rules texts through Polymarket's public Gamma API on September 25, 2026. The House market goes to the party that wins a majority of voting seats or, failing that, to the party of the first Speaker the new Congress elects. A runoff decides its seat, and members count for the party they were elected under, even if they switch before Congress organizes.
The Senate market also needs a majority of voting seats; at 50-50 it goes to the party holding the vice presidency and, if still unclear, to the party of the new Congress's first President pro tempore. It counts regular and special elections scheduled for November 2026 as of October 31, 2026, and runoffs even after November; seats not up for election count for the party holding them on Election Day.
Independents count for the party they caucus with; if that is unknown on Election Day, either market may stay open until they announce it, but not past January 4, 2027, at 11:59 p.m. Eastern, after which an unannounced independent counts for no party. The sources are official information from state electoral authorities, the United States Congress and a consensus of credible reporting; no TV network is named, and recounts are not mentioned.
See also: How election markets work · Market resolution
Senate race markets such as Georgia's, Louisiana's and Maine's resolve on the winner “inclusive of any run-offs.” Each resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, otherwise on the official certification. “Democrat” and “Republican” mean the party's nominee, never an independent. Alaska's market resolves to “Other” if results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027.
House district markets such as CA-22 follow “a consensus of credible reporting,” with the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission if that is ambiguous.
See also: Senate forecast 2026 · House forecast 2026
Early returns can mislead: the reported vote “might skew one way or the other,” the head of The New York Times' results team told the Reuters Institute, and in 2020 later-counted mail ballots leaned Democratic. The Times' needle moves as counted votes beat or miss its pre-election benchmarks, though the Times does not use it to call races. AP calls a race only when trailing candidates have no path to victory; in a few one-party states, the exit survey AP uses, The Voter Poll, can show that as soon as polls close.
In 2024, Polymarket's price for a Trump win went from 62% early on Election Day to 98% that evening as North Carolina and Georgia were called for him, Fortune reported on November 6, when the Times' tracker gave him 91%. In 2022 the move ran the other way: Betfair's odds of a Republican Senate majority peaked at 78% on Election Day and fell to 12% a day later, and PredictIt's Republican shares, near 75 cents, crashed too, The Conversation reported.
See also: What moves Polymarket prices · How accurate is Polymarket?
Our midterm, Senate and House forecast pages track the control markets and every race with a market, the 2026 elections hub has a page for each state, and the Polymarket vs Kalshi pages set the same contests side by side.
US residents cannot trade on Polymarket.com and must use the separate Polymarket US app; our legality page covers each state.
See also: Midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · 2026 elections by state · Polymarket vs Kalshi · Senate 2026 on Polymarket and Kalshi · House 2026 on Polymarket and Kalshi · Georgia · North Carolina · Ohio · Maine · Michigan · Texas · Iowa · Alaska · Polymarket vs polls · Is Polymarket legal in your state?
Settlement can take days or weeks: AP says a call can take a few days and, rarely, a few weeks. In 2022 it called the Senate on November 12 and the House on November 16, more than a week after Election Day. A proposed Polymarket result then faces a two-hour challenge window, and one disputed twice goes to a vote of UMA token holders after a 24- to 48-hour debate.
Runoffs stretch races: Georgia's 2022 Senate race went to a December 6 runoff, and the rules above count runoff winners. Maine uses ranked-choice voting in federal general elections, so a race without a majority on election night goes to tabulation rounds in Augusta.
Small races trade thinly: by September 25 the House control market had traded about $12.2 million and CA-22 about $17,500, where the Republican side was bid at 7 cents and offered at 10. Takers in politics markets pay a fee of shares × 0.04 × p × (1 − p) and makers pay nothing, so 100 shares at 50 cents carry 100 × 0.04 × 0.50 × 0.50 = $1.00 in fees. This is educational information, not financial advice.
See also: Polymarket fees calculator · How to spot a thin order book
Its rules set no date and name no TV network: it goes to the party that wins a House majority, judged on official information and a consensus of credible reporting, and may stay open until January 4, 2027, if independents' caucus plans are unclear. In 2022, AP called the House on November 16.
In Eastern Time, 270toWin lists 7 p.m. for Georgia, 7:30 p.m. for North Carolina and Ohio, 8 p.m. for Pennsylvania and Maine, 9 p.m. for Arizona and Iowa, and 11 p.m. for California. The first polls close at 6 p.m., the last at 1 a.m.
Not on Polymarket.com, where US residents cannot deposit or trade. They must use the separate Polymarket US app, a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists politics among its markets; our legality page covers each state.
Not on its own. A Senate race market needs the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC to call the race for the same candidate, or else waits for certification; House district markets follow a consensus of credible reporting.
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