Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Which party wins the Senate in 2026
Updated November 4, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Democrats at 98.8% and Kalshi at 99.2%. The widest gap is on Republicans: 1.2% on Polymarket vs 0.8% on Kalshi (0.5 points). Prices checked November 4, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 98.8% | 99.2% | -0.4 pts | Polymarket |
| Republicans | 1.2% | 0.8% | +0.5 pts | Kalshi |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
📊 2026 Senate forecast: every race, with Kalshi prices side by side
Polymarket prices Democrats at 98.8% and Kalshi at 99.2%. The widest gap is on Republicans: 1.2% on Polymarket vs 0.8% on Kalshi (0.5 points). Prices checked November 4, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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