Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Which party wins the House in 2026
Updated September 24, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Democrats at 92.5% and Kalshi at 91.7%. The widest gap is on Republicans: 7.5% on Polymarket vs 8.3% on Kalshi (0.8 points). Prices checked September 24, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 92.5% | 91.7% | +0.8 pts | Kalshi |
| Republicans | 7.5% | 8.3% | -0.8 pts | Polymarket |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
Polymarket prices Democrats at 92.5% and Kalshi at 91.7%. The widest gap is on Republicans: 7.5% on Polymarket vs 8.3% on Kalshi (0.8 points). Prices checked September 24, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
Other events priced on both: Fed decision in October 2026 · Fed decision in December 2026 · Which party wins the Senate in 2026 · Which party wins the 2028 presidential election · Brazil presidential election winner · Pro football champion (2026–27 season) · World Series 2026 champion · NBA champion 2027 · Stanley Cup 2027 · Champions League 2027 winner · Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first · US recession by the end of 2026. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Educational information, not financial advice. All pairs