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Updated November 4, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Democrats at 99.8% and Kalshi at 99.6%. The widest gap is on Republicans: 0.2% on Polymarket vs 0.5% on Kalshi (0.3 points). Prices checked November 4, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 99.8% | 99.6% | +0.2 pts | Kalshi |
| Republicans | 0.2% | 0.5% | -0.3 pts | Polymarket |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
📊 2026 House forecast: every district with a Polymarket market
Polymarket prices Democrats at 99.8% and Kalshi at 99.6%. The widest gap is on Republicans: 0.2% on Polymarket vs 0.5% on Kalshi (0.3 points). Prices checked November 4, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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