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Polymarket week in review: October 5 – October 11, 2026

Updating through Sunday · last update October 5, 12:50 UTC

Polymarket in the week of October 5 – October 11, 2026 (so far): the biggest move was Closest Governor's Race? — Florida 5.9% → 100% (+94.1 points). 51 new markets opened in the seven days to October 5.

Biggest risers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
Closest Governor's Race?	Florida	5.9%	100%	+94.1 pts
Amazonas Senate Election: 2nd Place	Plinio Valério	6.4%	98.5%	+92.1 pts
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place	Marília Campos	8.5%	98.5%	+90.0 pts
Trujillo Mayoral Election Winner	Roy Charlie Arbaiza Corcuera	6.7%	94.1%	+87.4 pts
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place	Domingos Sávio	11.2%	98.1%	+86.9 pts
Paraná Senate Election: 2nd Place	Deltan Dallagnol	13%	99%	+86.0 pts
Mato Grosso Senate Election: 2nd Place	Jose Medeiros	5.7%	91.5%	+85.8 pts
Espírito Santo Senate Election: 2nd Place	Evair de Melo	12.7%	98%	+85.3 pts
Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place	Sanderson	8.6%	92.5%	+83.9 pts
# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?	100M+	16.5%	99.9%+	+83.5 pts

Biggest fallers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner	Eduardo Paes	85.5%	5.1%	-80.3 pts
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais	Lula	61.5%	0.8%	-60.7 pts
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins	Lula	58%	<0.1%	-58.0 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?	1490+	91.9%	35.9%	-56.0 pts
Which company has the best AI model end of October?	Anthropic	87.5%	31.5%	-56.0 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?	40%+	95.4%	42.1%	-53.3 pts
Will Trump publicly insult someone?	September 29	84%	33.5%	-50.5 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released?	By October 31	69%	20%	-49.0 pts
Kraken IPO by ___ ?	March 31, 2027	64.5%	17.5%	-47.0 pts
Indiana enacts data center moratorium?	By December 31, 2027	53.5%	9.5%	-44.0 pts

New markets

→ Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? Yes 4.5%
→ Indiana enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 14.5%
→ Will Ukraine target Moscow? October 4 93.5%
→ Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI? By October 31 34.5%
→ USS George Washington departs CENTCOM? By December 31 75%
→ Ohio enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 25.5%
→ Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? Yes 29.5%
→ What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska? Love 97.5%
→ Missouri enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 25.5%
→ Confirmed pneumonic plague case in Russia? By October 31, 2026 19%
→ Israel military action against Lebanon? October 4 94.7%
→ Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? Yes 25.5%
→ Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? No Next Minister by Feb 28 34.5%
→ Texas enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 25.5%
→ EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026? 30M+ 96.5%

Moves compare the price at the last update with the chart point closest to seven days earlier, across the most-traded long-running markets we track. Live versions: this week's biggest moves and new markets.

Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All weekly recaps