Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Brazil presidential election winner
Updated September 24, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 56.7% and Kalshi at 54.5%. The widest gap is on Flávio Bolsonaro: 56.7% on Polymarket vs 54.5% on Kalshi (2.2 points). Prices checked September 24, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 56.7% | 54.5% | +2.2 pts | Kalshi |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 43.5% | 45.5% | -2.0 pts | Polymarket |
| Augusto Cury | <0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 pts | Polymarket |
| Renan Santos | 0.5% | 0.7% | -0.1 pts | Polymarket |
| Jair Bolsonaro | <0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | Polymarket |
| Fernando Haddad | <0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | Polymarket |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | <0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | Polymarket |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | <0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | Polymarket |
| Ratinho Júnior | <0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | Polymarket |
| Aldo Rebelo | <0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | Polymarket |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 56.7% and Kalshi at 54.5%. The widest gap is on Flávio Bolsonaro: 56.7% on Polymarket vs 54.5% on Kalshi (2.2 points). Prices checked September 24, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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