Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Brazil presidential election winner
Updated October 25, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 79.2% and Kalshi at 80.5%. The widest gap is on Flávio Bolsonaro: 79.2% on Polymarket vs 80.5% on Kalshi (1.3 points). Prices checked October 25, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 79.2% | 80.5% | -1.3 pts | Polymarket |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 20.5% | 20.5% | 0 | Same |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 79.2% and Kalshi at 80.5%. The widest gap is on Flávio Bolsonaro: 79.2% on Polymarket vs 80.5% on Kalshi (1.3 points). Prices checked October 25, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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