Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Fed decision in October 2026
Updated September 24, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Hike 25 bp at 63.5% and Kalshi at 64%. The widest gap is on Cut 50 bp or more: 0.2% on Polymarket vs 1.0% on Kalshi (0.8 points). Prices checked September 24, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 50 bp or more | 0.2% | 1.0% | -0.8 pts | Polymarket |
| Cut 25 bp | 0.5% | 1.0% | -0.5 pts | Polymarket |
| No change | 35.5% | 35.5% | 0 | Same |
| Hike 25 bp | 63.5% | 64% | -0.5 pts | Polymarket |
| Hike 50 bp or more | 1.0% | 1.5% | -0.5 pts | Polymarket |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
Polymarket prices Hike 25 bp at 63.5% and Kalshi at 64%. The widest gap is on Cut 50 bp or more: 0.2% on Polymarket vs 1.0% on Kalshi (0.8 points). Prices checked September 24, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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