Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Fed decision in October 2026
Updated October 28, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices No change at 94.8% and Kalshi at 94.5%. The widest gap is on Cut 50 bp or more: <0.1% on Polymarket vs 1.0% on Kalshi (0.9 points). Prices checked October 28, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 50 bp or more | <0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 pts | Polymarket |
| Cut 25 bp | <0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 pts | Polymarket |
| No change | 94.8% | 94.5% | +0.3 pts | Kalshi |
| Hike 25 bp | 4.9% | 5.5% | -0.6 pts | Polymarket |
| Hike 50 bp or more | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.7 pts | Polymarket |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
📊 Fed rate odds for every upcoming FOMC meeting, Polymarket and Kalshi
Polymarket prices No change at 94.8% and Kalshi at 94.5%. The widest gap is on Cut 50 bp or more: <0.1% on Polymarket vs 1.0% on Kalshi (0.9 points). Prices checked October 28, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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