Home › Weekly recaps › Week of October 26 – November 1, 2026
Updating through Sunday · last update October 26, 00:50 UTC
Polymarket in the week of October 26 – November 1, 2026 (so far): the biggest move was Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais — Flavio Bolsonaro 96% → 0.9% (-95.1 points). 52 new markets opened in the seven days to October 26.
| Market | Outcome | 7 days before | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory | Iotova <10% | 5.0% | 91.5% | +86.5 pts |
| Serbia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place | Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor | 4.0% | 85.5% | +81.5 pts |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory | Lula da Silva <4% | 18.5% | 99.5% | +81.0 pts |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout | 80-82% | 17% | 97.6% | +80.6 pts |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 20 - October 27, 2026? | 200+ | 20% | 99.9%+ | +80.0 pts |
| Serbia Election: Student List Vote Share? | 50%+ | 17.9% | 97% | +79.2 pts |
| Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October? | Meta | 1.2% | 79.3% | +78.1 pts |
| Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? | Anthropic | 27.5% | 97.9% | +70.4 pts |
| Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner | Student List – Students Win | 31.5% | 99.8% | +68.3 pts |
| Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026 | 2.0-2.4% | 2.8% | 68.2% | +65.3 pts |
| Market | Outcome | 7 days before | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais | Flavio Bolsonaro | 96% | 0.9% | -95.1 pts |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá | Flavio Bolsonaro | 79.5% | 0.1% | -79.4 pts |
| Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats? | 40-43 | 76.8% | 1.3% | -75.4 pts |
| What will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit in October 2026? | ↑ $75 | 76.5% | 7.0% | -69.5 pts |
| Bank of Brazil decision in November? | 25 bps decrease | 90.5% | 21.5% | -69.0 pts |
| How strong will Champi be? | Very strong | 60% | 0.8% | -59.2 pts |
| Another GTA VI trailer released? | By October 31 | 51.5% | 1.1% | -50.5 pts |
| How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026? | Greater than 8 | 64.5% | 16.5% | -48.0 pts |
| Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring QBs | Josh Allen | 97.2% | 50.7% | -46.6 pts |
| Who will be UFC Featherweight champion at the end of 2026? | Movsar Evloev | 49% | 3.0% | -46.0 pts |
Moves compare the price at the last update with the chart point closest to seven days earlier, across the most-traded long-running markets we track. Live versions: this week's biggest moves and new markets.
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