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Polymarket week in review: October 12 – October 18, 2026

Updating through Sunday · last update October 12, 00:50 UTC

Polymarket in the week of October 12 – October 18, 2026 (so far): the biggest move was Trujillo Mayoral Election Winner — Roy Charlie Arbaiza Corcuera 24.3% → 99.4% (+75.0 points). 90 new markets opened in the seven days to October 12.

Biggest risers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
Trujillo Mayoral Election Winner	Roy Charlie Arbaiza Corcuera	24.3%	99.4%	+75.0 pts
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia?	October 10	28%	99.8%	+71.8 pts
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?	Florida	28%	99.7%	+71.7 pts
Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?	LEVIATÁN	26.5%	98%	+71.5 pts
Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Post Malone	8.0%	77%	+69.0 pts
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	1-3	32.5%	97.7%	+65.2 pts
Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?	40-43	18.4%	82%	+63.6 pts
Which NRG player will have the most kills at VALORANT Champions 2026?	keiko	37.5%	99.2%	+61.7 pts
Next Mayor of Brno	Jakub Hruška	35%	94.5%	+59.5 pts
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece?	By October 31	5.5%	64.5%	+59.0 pts

Biggest fallers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
What price will Bitcoin hit October 5-11?	↑ 86,000	66%	1.1%	-65.0 pts
What price will Solana hit in October?	↑ 130	62%	22.5%	-39.5 pts
What price will XRP hit in October?	↑ 1.60	72%	33%	-39.0 pts
Will Loopscale launch a token by ___?	December 31, 2027	70.5%	31.5%	-39.0 pts
"Resident Evil" total domestic gross by October 31?	<150m	39.5%	3.8%	-35.7 pts
What will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest reach in 2026?	$5B	64.7%	29.9%	-34.8 pts
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting?	By October 31	63.5%	29%	-34.5 pts
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?	5.25%	72.5%	38.5%	-34.0 pts
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released?	By October 16	59.5%	26%	-33.5 pts
NFL: Tyreek Hill Next Team	Buffalo Bills	41.5%	8.8%	-32.6 pts

New markets

→ Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23? No Hormuz Agreement 88.8%
→ Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? No Hormuz Agreement 83.1%
→ North Carolina enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 28.5%
→ US imports Russian diesel by October 31? Yes 45.5%
→ Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% 48.5%
→ Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement? No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate 31.4%
→ Plague pandemic in 2026? Yes 1.9%
→ Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West)? By November 30 66%
→ Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá Flavio Bolsonaro 86%
→ Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory Ruas <5% 23%
→ Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems 30%
→ Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80? Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 29.5%
→ NFL: Tyreek Hill Next Team Kansas City Chiefs 53.5%
→ NFL: Marvin Harrison Jr. Next Team Houston Texans 99.1%
→ Gyanesh Kumar out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31? Yes 24.5%

Moves compare the price at the last update with the chart point closest to seven days earlier, across the most-traded long-running markets we track. Live versions: this week's biggest moves and new markets.

Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All weekly recaps