Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Michigan
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Michigan in the 2026 midterms. Michigan's Senate race: Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) leads at 71.5% (Lean Democrat). Michigan's governor race: Jocelyn Benson (Democrat) leads at 92.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 8 and Republicans in 5 of 13 districts with a market; toss-ups: MI-04, MI-07.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Abdul El-Sayed 71.5% | Mike Rogers 28.5% | Lean Democrat | $1.04M | race page |
| Governor | Jocelyn Benson 92.5% | John James 6.5% | Likely Democrat | $208.7K | race page |
| House MI-01 | Callie Barr 8.6% | Jack Bergman 91% | Likely Republican | $23.3K | race page |
| House MI-02 | Ben Ambrose 0.8% | John Moolenaar 98% | Safe Republican | $53.9K | race page |
| House MI-03 | Hillary Scholten 94.5% | Terri DeBoer 4.8% | Likely Democrat | $26.5K | race page |
| House MI-04 | Sean McCann 48.5% | Bill Huizenga 52.5% | Toss-up | $8.6K | race page |
| House MI-05 | Christian Vukasovich 5.1% | Tim Walberg 93.5% | Likely Republican | $30.1K | race page |
| House MI-06 | Debbie Dingell 95.5% | Heather Smiley 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $51.1K | race page |
| House MI-07 | William Lawrence 56.5% | Tom Barrett 43.5% | Toss-up | $23.7K | race page |
| House MI-08 | Kristen McDonald Rivet 93.5% | Thomas Smith 6.2% | Likely Democrat | $21.2K | race page |
| House MI-09 | Ray Pooley 5.5% | Lisa McClain 95.5% | Safe Republican | $37.6K | race page |
| House MI-10 | Christina Hines 65.5% | Mike Bouchard 32.5% | Lean Democrat | $8.1K | race page |
| House MI-11 | Jeremy Moss 95.6% | Ethan Baker 2.6% | Safe Democrat | $81.4K | race page |
| House MI-12 | Rashida Tlaib 97.9% | James Hooper 0.1% | Safe Democrat | $40.8K | race page |
| House MI-13 | Donavan McKinney 97.9% | T.P. Nykoriak 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $49.6K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 73.5% / Republican 27.5% · Governor: Democrat 92.7% / Republican 7.8% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Michigan in the 2026 midterms. Michigan's Senate race: Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) leads at 71.5% (Lean Democrat). Michigan's governor race: Jocelyn Benson (Democrat) leads at 92.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 8 and Republicans in 5 of 13 districts with a market; toss-ups: MI-04, MI-07.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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