Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Texas
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Texas in the 2026 midterms. Texas's Senate race: James Talarico (Democrat) leads at 61.5% (Lean Democrat). Texas's governor race: Greg Abbott (Republican) leads at 74% (Lean Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 12 and Republicans in 26 of 38 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | James Talarico 61.5% | Ken Paxton 39.5% | Lean Democrat | $1.49M | race page |
| Governor | Gina Hinojosa 25.5% | Greg Abbott 74% | Lean Republican | $195.0K | race page |
| House TX-01 | Yolanda Prince 2.4% | Nathaniel Moran 96.5% | Safe Republican | $59.1K | race page |
| House TX-02 | Shaun Finnie 5.5% | Steve Toth 94.5% | Likely Republican | $29.6K | race page |
| House TX-03 | Evan Hunt 5.5% | Keith Self 94.5% | Likely Republican | $37.8K | race page |
| House TX-04 | Jason Pearce 4.5% | Pat Fallon 94.5% | Likely Republican | $43.8K | race page |
| House TX-05 | Chelsey Hockett 5.5% | Lance Gooden 94.5% | Likely Republican | $44.9K | race page |
| House TX-06 | Danny Minton 6.2% | Jake Ellzey 93.5% | Likely Republican | $55.5K | race page |
| House TX-07 | Lizzie Fletcher 96% | Alexander Hale 2.0% | Safe Democrat | $30.2K | race page |
| House TX-08 | Laura Jones 5.5% | Jessica Hart Steinmann 95% | Safe Republican | $24.1K | race page |
| House TX-09 | Leticia Gutierrez 17.5% | Alex Mealer 81% | Likely Republican | $29.7K | race page |
| House TX-10 | Caitlin Rourk 8.0% | Chris Gober 90% | Likely Republican | $36.3K | race page |
| House TX-11 | Claire Reynolds 4.5% | August Pfluger 94.5% | Likely Republican | $35.5K | race page |
| House TX-12 | Angela Rodriguez Prilliman 5.5% | Craig Goldman 94.5% | Likely Republican | $40.2K | race page |
| House TX-13 | Mark Nair 4.5% | Ronny Jackson 94.5% | Likely Republican | $19.0K | race page |
| House TX-14 | Thurman Bartie 5.5% | Randy Weber 95% | Safe Republican | $28.7K | race page |
| House TX-15 | Bobby Pulido 76% | Monica De La Cruz 24% | Lean Democrat | $28.2K | race page |
| House TX-16 | Veronica Escobar 97.3% | Adam Bauman 2.4% | Safe Democrat | $27.0K | race page |
| House TX-17 | Casey Shepard 4.5% | Pete Sessions 94.5% | Likely Republican | $51.5K | race page |
| House TX-18 | Christian Menefee 96.7% | Ronald Whitfield 3.2% | Safe Democrat | $16.2K | race page |
| House TX-19 | Kyle Rable 1.0% | Tom Sell 99.2% | Safe Republican | $30.2K | race page |
| House TX-20 | Joaquin Castro 97.1% | Edgardo Rafael Baez 2.1% | Safe Democrat | $38.4K | race page |
| House TX-21 | Kristin Hook 5.5% | Mark Teixeira 93.5% | Likely Republican | $64.3K | race page |
| House TX-22 | Marquette Greene-Scott 7.5% | Trever Nehls 92.5% | Likely Republican | $26.6K | race page |
| House TX-23 | Katy Padilla Stout 39.5% | Brandon Herrera 61.5% | Lean Republican | $63.3K | race page |
| House TX-24 | Kevin Burge 8.5% | Beth Van Duyne 89% | Likely Republican | $61.9K | race page |
| House TX-25 | Dione Sims 4.0% | Roger Williams 95.3% | Safe Republican | $17.9K | race page |
| House TX-26 | Steven Shook 2.2% | Brandon Gill 97.5% | Safe Republican | $34.7K | race page |
| House TX-27 | Tanya Lloyd 5.8% | Michael Cloud 94% | Likely Republican | $49.6K | race page |
| House TX-28 | Henry Cuellar 85.5% | Tano Tijerina 13.5% | Likely Democrat | $10.2K | race page |
| House TX-29 | Sylvia Garcia 94% | Martha Fierro 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $9.8K | race page |
| House TX-30 | Frederick Haynes III 96% | Everett Jackson 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $48.3K | race page |
| House TX-31 | Justin Early 5.5% | John Carter 94.5% | Likely Republican | $53.3K | race page |
| House TX-32 | Dan Barrios 9.6% | Jace Yarbrough 88.5% | Likely Republican | $41.8K | race page |
| House TX-33 | Colin Allred 96% | Patrick Gillespie 0.8% | Safe Democrat | $16.6K | race page |
| House TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez 81.5% | Eric Flores 16% | Likely Democrat | $9.8K | race page |
| House TX-35 | Johnny Garcia 68% | Carlos De La Cruz 32.5% | Lean Democrat | $28.6K | race page |
| House TX-36 | Rhonda Hart 6.3% | Brian Babin 92.5% | Likely Republican | $30.6K | race page |
| House TX-37 | Greg Casar 97.5% | Lauren Peña 1.3% | Safe Democrat | $45.1K | race page |
| House TX-38 | Melissa McDonough 6.3% | Jon Bonck 93% | Likely Republican | $28.0K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 58.5% / Republican 42.5% · Governor: Democrat 25.5% / Republican 74.5% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Texas in the 2026 midterms. Texas's Senate race: James Talarico (Democrat) leads at 61.5% (Lean Democrat). Texas's governor race: Greg Abbott (Republican) leads at 74% (Lean Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 12 and Republicans in 26 of 38 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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