Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Texas
Updated November 4, 2026 at 14:06 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Texas in the 2026 midterms. House: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 6 of 7 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House TX-02 | Shaun Finnie 2.8% | Steve Toth 96.8% | Safe Republican | $41.1K | race page |
| House TX-05 | Chelsey Hockett 1.7% | Lance Gooden 97.2% | Safe Republican | $76.6K | race page |
| House TX-09 | Leticia Gutierrez 99.2% | Alex Mealer 0.3% | Safe Democrat | $100.3K | race page |
| House TX-22 | Marquette Greene-Scott 2.6% | Trever Nehls 97.2% | Safe Republican | $45.7K | race page |
| House TX-27 | Tanya Lloyd 0.5% | Michael Cloud 99.7% | Safe Republican | $99.2K | race page |
| House TX-32 | Dan Barrios 3.2% | Jace Yarbrough 96.7% | Safe Republican | $75.8K | race page |
| House TX-38 | Melissa McDonough 2.4% | Jon Bonck 97.6% | Safe Republican | $38.6K | race page |
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Texas 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, November 4, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/texas/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Texas in the 2026 midterms. House: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 6 of 7 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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