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Texas 2026 election odds on Polymarket

Updated October 10, 2026 at 17:36 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026

Polymarket odds for Texas in the 2026 midterms. Texas's Senate race: James Talarico (Democrat) leads at 63.5% (Lean Democrat). Texas's governor race: Greg Abbott (Republican) leads at 77% (Lean Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 12 and Republicans in 26 of 38 districts with a market.

RaceDemocratRepublicanRatingVolume
SenateJames Talarico 63.5%Ken Paxton 37.5%Lean Democrat$3.15Mrace page
GovernorGina Hinojosa 22.5%Greg Abbott 77%Lean Republican$492.2Krace page
House TX-01Yolanda Prince 2.1%Nathaniel Moran 96.8%Safe Republican$60.1Krace page
House TX-02Shaun Finnie 8.0%Steve Toth 90.5%Likely Republican$30.8Krace page
House TX-03Evan Hunt 4.1%Keith Self 94.5%Likely Republican$41.8Krace page
House TX-04Jason Pearce 5.0%Pat Fallon 95.5%Safe Republican$50.0Krace page
House TX-05Chelsey Hockett 1.4%Lance Gooden 96.5%Safe Republican$64.8Krace page
House TX-06Danny Minton 2.6%Jake Ellzey 96%Safe Republican$83.5Krace page
House TX-07Lizzie Fletcher 96%Alexander Hale 2.8%Safe Democrat$30.6Krace page
House TX-08Laura Jones 3.3%Jessica Hart Steinmann 95%Safe Republican$35.2Krace page
House TX-09Leticia Gutierrez 17.5%Alex Mealer 79.5%Lean Republican$35.3Krace page
House TX-10Caitlin Rourk 9.5%Chris Gober 90.5%Likely Republican$36.8Krace page
House TX-11Claire Reynolds 3.3%August Pfluger 95.6%Safe Republican$35.5Krace page
House TX-12Angela Rodriguez Prilliman 4.5%Craig Goldman 95.5%Safe Republican$51.5Krace page
House TX-13Mark Nair 4.5%Ronny Jackson 95%Safe Republican$19.3Krace page
House TX-14Thurman Bartie 3.4%Randy Weber 96.3%Safe Republican$31.7Krace page
House TX-15Bobby Pulido 79.5%Monica De La Cruz 19.5%Lean Democrat$52.7Krace page
House TX-16Veronica Escobar 96.7%Adam Bauman 2.1%Safe Democrat$27.1Krace page
House TX-17Casey Shepard 5.4%Pete Sessions 95%Safe Republican$52.3Krace page
House TX-18Christian Menefee 97.6%Ronald Whitfield 2.1%Safe Democrat$16.7Krace page
House TX-19Kyle Rable 0.8%Tom Sell 98.4%Safe Republican$31.0Krace page
House TX-20Joaquin Castro 95.5%Edgardo Rafael Baez 3.9%Safe Democrat$39.4Krace page
House TX-21Kristin Hook 4.5%Mark Teixeira 93.5%Likely Republican$65.4Krace page
House TX-22Marquette Greene-Scott 5.5%Trever Nehls 94.5%Likely Republican$30.4Krace page
House TX-23Katy Padilla Stout 38.5%Brandon Herrera 61.5%Lean Republican$76.4Krace page
House TX-24Kevin Burge 6.5%Beth Van Duyne 91.5%Likely Republican$62.9Krace page
House TX-25Dione Sims 3.9%Roger Williams 95.7%Safe Republican$34.5Krace page
House TX-26Steven Shook 3.2%Brandon Gill 95.5%Safe Republican$55.7Krace page
House TX-27Tanya Lloyd 5.6%Michael Cloud 94.2%Likely Republican$49.9Krace page
House TX-28Henry Cuellar 88.5%Tano Tijerina 10.5%Likely Democrat$11.2Krace page
House TX-29Sylvia Garcia 96.7%Martha Fierro 2.3%Safe Democrat$19.9Krace page
House TX-30Frederick Haynes III 95.8%Everett Jackson 2.3%Safe Democrat$48.5Krace page
House TX-31Justin Early 4.5%John Carter 95%Safe Republican$60.4Krace page
House TX-32Dan Barrios 10.8%Jace Yarbrough 89.5%Likely Republican$46.1Krace page
House TX-33Colin Allred 95.8%Patrick Gillespie 2.1%Safe Democrat$17.0Krace page
House TX-34Vicente Gonzalez 83.5%Eric Flores 16.5%Likely Democrat$10.6Krace page
House TX-35Johnny Garcia 60%Carlos De La Cruz 37%Lean Democrat$44.1Krace page
House TX-36Rhonda Hart 3.6%Brian Babin 94.5%Likely Republican$42.7Krace page
House TX-37Greg Casar 97.6%Lauren Peña 1.1%Safe Democrat$45.2Krace page
House TX-38Melissa McDonough 4.0%Jon Bonck 95%Safe Republican$29.7Krace page

Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 62.5% / Republican 36.5% · Governor: Democrat 22.5% / Republican 78.5% (midpoint of bid and ask).

Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.

National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast

On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).

Cite this data

Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.

Polymarket View, “Texas 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 10, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/texas/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

Frequently asked questions

Who is favoured in Texas's 2026 elections?

Polymarket odds for Texas in the 2026 midterms. Texas's Senate race: James Talarico (Democrat) leads at 63.5% (Lean Democrat). Texas's governor race: Greg Abbott (Republican) leads at 77% (Lean Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 12 and Republicans in 26 of 38 districts with a market.

How are the ratings set?

From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.

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