Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › North Carolina
Updated November 9, 2026 at 02:01 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for North Carolina in the 2026 midterms. House: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 2 of 4 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House NC-03 | Raymond Smith Jr. 85.2% | Greg Murphy 14.9% | Likely Democrat | $1.27M | race page |
| House NC-05 | Chuck Hubbard 96.6% | Virginia Foxx 3.0% | Safe Democrat | $143.3K | race page |
| House NC-07 | Kimberly Hardy 0.7% | David Rouzer 99.1% | Safe Republican | $65.4K | race page |
| House NC-10 | Ashley Bell 0.2% | Pat Harrigan 99.6% | Safe Republican | $20.1K | race page |
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
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Polymarket View, “North Carolina 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, November 9, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/north-carolina/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for North Carolina in the 2026 midterms. House: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 2 of 4 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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