Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Alaska
Updated November 9, 2026 at 02:01 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Alaska in the 2026 midterms. Alaska's Senate race: Mary Peltola (Democrat) leads at 98.4% (Safe Democrat). Alaska's governor race: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (Other) leads at 99.4% (Safe (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 1 of 1 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Mary Peltola 98.4% | Sen. Dan Sullivan 1.6% | Safe Democrat | $7.98M | race page |
| Governor | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 99.4% · Bernadette Wilson 0.4% (no party labels in this market) | Safe (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins) | $1.95M | race page | |
| House AK-AL | Democrat <0.1% | Republican 91.1% | Likely Republican | $177.3K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 97.2% / Republican 2.7% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Led by a candidate without a party label in the market: Alaska: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 99.4%.
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
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Polymarket View, “Alaska 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, November 9, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/alaska/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Alaska in the 2026 midterms. Alaska's Senate race: Mary Peltola (Democrat) leads at 98.4% (Safe Democrat). Alaska's governor race: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (Other) leads at 99.4% (Safe (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 1 of 1 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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