Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Iowa

Iowa 2026 election odds on Polymarket

Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026

Polymarket odds for Iowa in the 2026 midterms. Iowa's Senate race: Ashley Hinson (Republican) leads at 53.5% (Toss-up). Iowa's governor race: Rob Sand (Democrat) leads at 83.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 1 of 4 districts with a market; toss-ups: IA-02.

RaceDemocratRepublicanRatingVolume
SenateJosh Turek 46.5%Ashley Hinson 53.5%Toss-up$565.8Krace page
GovernorRob Sand 83.5%Zach Lahn 16%Likely Democrat$95.1Krace page
House IA-01Christina Bohannan 81.5%Mariannette Miller-Meeks 19.5%Likely Democrat$31.7Krace page
House IA-02Lindsay James 54%Joe Mitchell 45%Toss-up$21.7Krace page
House IA-03Sarah Trone Garriott 76.5%Zach Nunn 23%Lean Democrat$11.0Krace page
House IA-04David Dawson 5.5%Chris McGowan 94.5%Likely Republican$41.4Krace page

Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 44.5% / Republican 55.5% · Governor: Democrat 82.5% / Republican 17% (midpoint of bid and ask).

Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.

National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast

Frequently asked questions

Who is favoured in Iowa's 2026 elections?

Polymarket odds for Iowa in the 2026 midterms. Iowa's Senate race: Ashley Hinson (Republican) leads at 53.5% (Toss-up). Iowa's governor race: Rob Sand (Democrat) leads at 83.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 1 of 4 districts with a market; toss-ups: IA-02.

How are the ratings set?

From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.

Other states

Alabama · Alaska · Arizona · Arkansas · California · Colorado · Connecticut · Delaware · Florida · Georgia · Hawaii · Idaho · Illinois · Indiana · Kansas · Kentucky · Louisiana · Maine · Maryland · Massachusetts · Michigan · Minnesota · Mississippi · Missouri · Montana · Nebraska · Nevada · New Hampshire · New Jersey · New Mexico · New York · North Carolina · North Dakota · Ohio · Oklahoma · Oregon · Pennsylvania · Rhode Island · South Carolina · South Dakota · Tennessee · Texas · Utah · Vermont · Virginia · Washington · West Virginia · Wisconsin · Wyoming

Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.