Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Iowa
Updated November 4, 2026 at 02:00 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Iowa in the 2026 midterms. Iowa's Senate race: Josh Turek (Democrat) leads at 88.5% (Likely Democrat). Iowa's governor race: Rob Sand (Democrat) leads at 96.4% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 1 of 4 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Josh Turek 88.5% | Ashley Hinson 10% | Likely Democrat | $2.65M | race page |
| Governor | Rob Sand 96.4% | Zach Lahn 3.8% | Safe Democrat | $594.1K | race page |
| House IA-01 | Christina Bohannan 96.8% | Mariannette Miller-Meeks 3.2% | Safe Democrat | $102.6K | race page |
| House IA-02 | Lindsay James 93.5% | Joe Mitchell 5.0% | Likely Democrat | $84.8K | race page |
| House IA-03 | Sarah Trone Garriott 88% | Zach Nunn 12% | Likely Democrat | $37.3K | race page |
| House IA-04 | David Dawson 2.3% | Chris McGowan 96.8% | Safe Republican | $67.4K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 85.5% / Republican 14.5% · Governor: Democrat 94.9% / Republican 5.1% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Iowa 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, November 4, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/iowa/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Iowa in the 2026 midterms. Iowa's Senate race: Josh Turek (Democrat) leads at 88.5% (Likely Democrat). Iowa's governor race: Rob Sand (Democrat) leads at 96.4% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 1 of 4 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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