Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Iowa
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Iowa in the 2026 midterms. Iowa's Senate race: Ashley Hinson (Republican) leads at 53.5% (Toss-up). Iowa's governor race: Rob Sand (Democrat) leads at 83.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 1 of 4 districts with a market; toss-ups: IA-02.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Josh Turek 46.5% | Ashley Hinson 53.5% | Toss-up | $565.8K | race page |
| Governor | Rob Sand 83.5% | Zach Lahn 16% | Likely Democrat | $95.1K | race page |
| House IA-01 | Christina Bohannan 81.5% | Mariannette Miller-Meeks 19.5% | Likely Democrat | $31.7K | race page |
| House IA-02 | Lindsay James 54% | Joe Mitchell 45% | Toss-up | $21.7K | race page |
| House IA-03 | Sarah Trone Garriott 76.5% | Zach Nunn 23% | Lean Democrat | $11.0K | race page |
| House IA-04 | David Dawson 5.5% | Chris McGowan 94.5% | Likely Republican | $41.4K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 44.5% / Republican 55.5% · Governor: Democrat 82.5% / Republican 17% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Iowa in the 2026 midterms. Iowa's Senate race: Ashley Hinson (Republican) leads at 53.5% (Toss-up). Iowa's governor race: Rob Sand (Democrat) leads at 83.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 1 of 4 districts with a market; toss-ups: IA-02.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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