Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Minnesota
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Minnesota in the 2026 midterms. Minnesota's Senate race: Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) leads at 92.5% (Likely Democrat). Minnesota's governor race: Amy Klobuchar (Democrat) leads at 95.5% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 4 and Republicans in 4 of 8 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Peggy Flanagan 92.5% | Michele Tafoya 7.5% | Likely Democrat | $96.1K | race page |
| Governor | Amy Klobuchar 95.5% | Lisa Demuth 5.1% | Safe Democrat | $73.2K | race page |
| House MN-01 | Jake Johnson 23% | Brad Finstad 76% | Lean Republican | $47.4K | race page |
| House MN-02 | Matt Little 93% | Eric Pratt 6.7% | Likely Democrat | $38.5K | race page |
| House MN-03 | Kelly Morrison 95% | Tyler Bass 2.4% | Safe Democrat | $25.2K | race page |
| House MN-04 | Betty McCollum 95% | Paul Wikstrom 3.2% | Safe Democrat | $24.3K | race page |
| House MN-05 | Ilhan Omar 95.6% | John Nagel 4.1% | Safe Democrat | $50.1K | race page |
| House MN-06 | Doug Chapin 7.5% | Tom Emmer 90.5% | Likely Republican | $44.1K | race page |
| House MN-07 | Erik Osberg 4.5% | Michelle Fischbach 94.5% | Likely Republican | $28.9K | race page |
| House MN-08 | Trina Swanson 13.5% | Pete Stauber 85.5% | Likely Republican | $21.2K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 90.5% / Republican 9.8% · Governor: Democrat 95.3% / Republican 5.2% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Minnesota in the 2026 midterms. Minnesota's Senate race: Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) leads at 92.5% (Likely Democrat). Minnesota's governor race: Amy Klobuchar (Democrat) leads at 95.5% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 4 and Republicans in 4 of 8 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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