Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Minnesota

Minnesota 2026 election odds on Polymarket

Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026

Polymarket odds for Minnesota in the 2026 midterms. Minnesota's Senate race: Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) leads at 92.5% (Likely Democrat). Minnesota's governor race: Amy Klobuchar (Democrat) leads at 95.5% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 4 and Republicans in 4 of 8 districts with a market.

RaceDemocratRepublicanRatingVolume
SenatePeggy Flanagan 92.5%Michele Tafoya 7.5%Likely Democrat$96.1Krace page
GovernorAmy Klobuchar 95.5%Lisa Demuth 5.1%Safe Democrat$73.2Krace page
House MN-01Jake Johnson 23%Brad Finstad 76%Lean Republican$47.4Krace page
House MN-02Matt Little 93%Eric Pratt 6.7%Likely Democrat$38.5Krace page
House MN-03Kelly Morrison 95%Tyler Bass 2.4%Safe Democrat$25.2Krace page
House MN-04Betty McCollum 95%Paul Wikstrom 3.2%Safe Democrat$24.3Krace page
House MN-05Ilhan Omar 95.6%John Nagel 4.1%Safe Democrat$50.1Krace page
House MN-06Doug Chapin 7.5%Tom Emmer 90.5%Likely Republican$44.1Krace page
House MN-07Erik Osberg 4.5%Michelle Fischbach 94.5%Likely Republican$28.9Krace page
House MN-08Trina Swanson 13.5%Pete Stauber 85.5%Likely Republican$21.2Krace page

Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 90.5% / Republican 9.8% · Governor: Democrat 95.3% / Republican 5.2% (midpoint of bid and ask).

Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.

National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast

Frequently asked questions

Who is favoured in Minnesota's 2026 elections?

Polymarket odds for Minnesota in the 2026 midterms. Minnesota's Senate race: Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) leads at 92.5% (Likely Democrat). Minnesota's governor race: Amy Klobuchar (Democrat) leads at 95.5% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 4 and Republicans in 4 of 8 districts with a market.

How are the ratings set?

From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.

Other states

Alabama · Alaska · Arizona · Arkansas · California · Colorado · Connecticut · Delaware · Florida · Georgia · Hawaii · Idaho · Illinois · Indiana · Iowa · Kansas · Kentucky · Louisiana · Maine · Maryland · Massachusetts · Michigan · Mississippi · Missouri · Montana · Nebraska · Nevada · New Hampshire · New Jersey · New Mexico · New York · North Carolina · North Dakota · Ohio · Oklahoma · Oregon · Pennsylvania · Rhode Island · South Carolina · South Dakota · Tennessee · Texas · Utah · Vermont · Virginia · Washington · West Virginia · Wisconsin · Wyoming

Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.