Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Minnesota
Updated October 15, 2026 at 01:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Minnesota in the 2026 midterms. Minnesota's Senate race: Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) leads at 88% (Likely Democrat). Minnesota's governor race: Amy Klobuchar (Democrat) leads at 95.5% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 4 and Republicans in 4 of 8 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Peggy Flanagan 88% | Michele Tafoya 12.5% | Likely Democrat | $267.9K | race page |
| Governor | Amy Klobuchar 95.5% | Lisa Demuth 4.8% | Safe Democrat | $91.2K | race page |
| House MN-01 | Jake Johnson 24% | Brad Finstad 75.5% | Lean Republican | $55.2K | race page |
| House MN-02 | Matt Little 92.8% | Eric Pratt 6.5% | Likely Democrat | $63.1K | race page |
| House MN-03 | Kelly Morrison 95.9% | Tyler Bass 3.5% | Safe Democrat | $29.5K | race page |
| House MN-04 | Betty McCollum 96.5% | Paul Wikstrom 3.6% | Safe Democrat | $28.2K | race page |
| House MN-05 | Ilhan Omar 94.9% | John Nagel 4.9% | Likely Democrat | $71.9K | race page |
| House MN-06 | Doug Chapin 2.6% | Tom Emmer 95.5% | Safe Republican | $90.8K | race page |
| House MN-07 | Erik Osberg 2.5% | Michelle Fischbach 97.2% | Safe Republican | $34.9K | race page |
| House MN-08 | Trina Swanson 12.5% | Pete Stauber 87.5% | Likely Republican | $21.4K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 86.5% / Republican 13.5% · Governor: Democrat 94.9% / Republican 5.0% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Minnesota 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 15, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/minnesota/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Minnesota in the 2026 midterms. Minnesota's Senate race: Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) leads at 88% (Likely Democrat). Minnesota's governor race: Amy Klobuchar (Democrat) leads at 95.5% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 4 and Republicans in 4 of 8 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
Alabama · Alaska · Arizona · Arkansas · California · Colorado · Connecticut · Delaware · Florida · Georgia · Hawaii · Idaho · Illinois · Indiana · Iowa · Kansas · Kentucky · Louisiana · Maine · Maryland · Massachusetts · Michigan · Mississippi · Missouri · Montana · Nebraska · Nevada · New Hampshire · New Jersey · New Mexico · New York · North Carolina · North Dakota · Ohio · Oklahoma · Oregon · Pennsylvania · Rhode Island · South Carolina · South Dakota · Tennessee · Texas · Utah · Vermont · Virginia · Washington · West Virginia · Wisconsin · Wyoming
Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.