Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Tennessee
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Tennessee in the 2026 midterms. Tennessee's Senate race: Bill Hagerty (Republican) leads at 96.6% (Safe Republican). Tennessee's governor race: Marsha Blackburn (Republican) leads at 96% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 9 of 9 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Marquita Bradshaw 3.3% | Bill Hagerty 96.6% | Safe Republican | $29.9K | race page |
| Governor | Jerri Green 3.5% | Marsha Blackburn 96% | Safe Republican | $9.9K | race page |
| House TN-01 | Kristi Burke 1.9% | Diana Harshbarger 98.2% | Safe Republican | $27.1K | race page |
| House TN-02 | Michaela Barnett 5.5% | Tim Burchett 95.5% | Safe Republican | $33.3K | race page |
| House TN-03 | Anna Golladay 4.8% | Chuck Fleischmann 94.5% | Likely Republican | $44.5K | race page |
| House TN-04 | Victoria Broderick 5.5% | Scott DesJarlais 95% | Safe Republican | $71.9K | race page |
| House TN-05 | Chaz Molder 8.2% | Charlie Hatcher 91.5% | Likely Republican | $63.1K | race page |
| House TN-06 | Mike Croley 4.5% | Johnny Garrett 93.5% | Likely Republican | $17.5K | race page |
| House TN-07 | Darden Copeland 4.5% | Matt Van Epps 95.8% | Safe Republican | $20.7K | race page |
| House TN-08 | Heidi Kuhn 2.3% | David Kustoff 95.9% | Safe Republican | $43.6K | race page |
| House TN-09 | Justin Pearson 13% | Brent Taylor 88% | Likely Republican | $45.8K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 2.9% / Republican 97.2% · Governor: Democrat 4.9% / Republican 95.4% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Tennessee in the 2026 midterms. Tennessee's Senate race: Bill Hagerty (Republican) leads at 96.6% (Safe Republican). Tennessee's governor race: Marsha Blackburn (Republican) leads at 96% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 9 of 9 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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