Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › California
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for California in the 2026 midterms. California's governor race: Xavier Becerra (Other) leads at 95.3% (Safe (Xavier Becerra)). House: Democrats favoured in 48 and Republicans in 3 of 51 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Xavier Becerra 95.3% · Steve Hilton 4.5% (no party labels in this market) | Safe (Xavier Becerra) | $41.26M | race page | |
| House CA-01 | Mike McGuire 96.9% | James Gallagher 2.6% | Safe Democrat | $35.1K | race page |
| House CA-02 | Jared Huffman 96.5% | Robin Littau 1.2% | Safe Democrat | $20.9K | race page |
| House CA-03 | Ami Bera 95.5% | Robb Tucker 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $43.6K | race page |
| House CA-04 | Democrat 95.9% | Republican 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $13.7K | race page |
| House CA-05 | Michael Masuda 6.6% | Tom McClintock 93.5% | Likely Republican | $16.8K | race page |
| House CA-06 | Democrat 96% | Republican 3.4% | Safe Democrat | $50.8K | race page |
| House CA-07 | Democrat 96.5% | Republican 2.4% | Safe Democrat | $12.8K | race page |
| House CA-08 | John Garamendi 95.8% | Rudy Recile 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $44.4K | race page |
| House CA-09 | Josh Harder 95.5% | John McBride 5.5% | Safe Democrat | $23.4K | race page |
| House CA-10 | Mark DeSaulnier 95.5% | Jeff Frese 4.0% | Safe Democrat | $26.6K | race page |
| House CA-11 | Democrat 98.5% | Republican 0.5% | Safe Democrat | $21.8K | race page |
| House CA-12 | Democrat 97.8% | Republican 1.3% | Safe Democrat | $44.7K | race page |
| House CA-13 | Adam Gray 97% | Kevin Lincoln 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $28.4K | race page |
| House CA-14 | Democrat 97.5% | Republican 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $35.8K | race page |
| House CA-15 | Kevin Mullin 95.5% | Charles Hoelter 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $122.5K | race page |
| House CA-16 | Sam Liccardo 96.5% | Peter Soulé 1.9% | Safe Democrat | $107.5K | race page |
| House CA-17 | Ro Khanna 97.3% | Ritesh Tandon 1.7% | Safe Democrat | $15.8K | race page |
| House CA-18 | Zoe Lofgren 97.4% | Shane Lewis 2.3% | Safe Democrat | $40.1K | race page |
| House CA-19 | Jimmy Panetta 99.3% | Peter Coe Verbica 0.3% | Safe Democrat | $49.6K | race page |
| House CA-20 | Sandra Van Scotter 2.6% | Vince Fong 96.6% | Safe Republican | $49.1K | race page |
| House CA-21 | Jim Costa 93.5% | Kyle Kirkland 6.5% | Likely Democrat | $27.4K | race page |
| House CA-22 | Randy Villegas 89.5% | David Valadao 9.0% | Likely Democrat | $17.5K | race page |
| House CA-23 | Tessa Lynn Hodge 6.2% | Jay Obernolte 93.2% | Likely Republican | $61.9K | race page |
| House CA-24 | Salud Carbajal 97.9% | Bob Smith 1.2% | Safe Democrat | $51.1K | race page |
| House CA-25 | Raul Ruiz 94.5% | Joe Males 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $20.2K | race page |
| House CA-26 | Jacqui Irwin 95.5% | Sam Gallucci 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $35.5K | race page |
| House CA-27 | George Whitesides 94.5% | Jason Gibbs 4.9% | Likely Democrat | $19.3K | race page |
| House CA-28 | Judy Chu 96.5% | April Verlato 1.5% | Safe Democrat | $141.3K | race page |
| House CA-29 | Democrat 96.2% | Republican 3.4% | Safe Democrat | $30.7K | race page |
| House CA-30 | Laura Friedman 95% | Scott Meyers 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $24.4K | race page |
| House CA-31 | Gil Cisneros 95% | Eric Ching 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $18.2K | race page |
| House CA-32 | Brad Sherman 95.5% | Larry Thompson 0.5% | Safe Democrat | $26.1K | race page |
| House CA-33 | Pete Aguilar 95.5% | Stephanie Vargas 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $21.4K | race page |
| House CA-34 | Democrat 99.8% | Republican 0.1% | Safe Democrat | $49.6K | race page |
| House CA-35 | Norma Torres 94.5% | Mike Cargile 2.9% | Likely Democrat | $36.5K | race page |
| House CA-36 | Ted Lieu 95% | Houston Brignano 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $35.3K | race page |
| House CA-37 | Democrat 96.6% | Republican 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $3.4K | race page |
| House CA-38 | Hilda Solis 94.5% | Pedro Casas 0.7% | Likely Democrat | $64.3K | race page |
| House CA-39 | Mark Takano 94.5% | Steve Manos 3.9% | Likely Democrat | $55.2K | race page |
| House CA-41 | Linda Sánchez 95.5% | Mitch Clemmons 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $20.0K | race page |
| House CA-42 | Robert Garcia 95.5% | Brian Burley 3.5% | Safe Democrat | $42.4K | race page |
| House CA-43 | Maxine Waters 96.8% | Cristian Morales 2.8% | Safe Democrat | $31.8K | race page |
| House CA-44 | Nanette Barragán 96.9% | Genevieve Angel 1.6% | Safe Democrat | $46.8K | race page |
| House CA-45 | Derek Tran 92.5% | Chuong Vo 7.0% | Likely Democrat | $38.0K | race page |
| House CA-46 | Lou Correa 95% | David Pan 5.5% | Safe Democrat | $28.3K | race page |
| House CA-47 | Dave Min 95.5% | Jenny Le Roux 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $17.7K | race page |
| House CA-48 | Marni von Wilpert 88.5% | Jim Desmond 11% | Likely Democrat | $32.6K | race page |
| House CA-49 | Mike Levin 95.5% | Armen Kurdian 4.0% | Safe Democrat | $28.2K | race page |
| House CA-50 | Scott Peters 95.1% | Steve Cohen 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $64.6K | race page |
| House CA-51 | Sara Jacobs 95% | Ricardo Cabrera 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $34.0K | race page |
| House CA-52 | Juan Vargas 95.9% | Jeff Belle 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $48.8K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Governor: Democrat 96.3% / Republican 3.6% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Led by a candidate without a party label in the market: California: Xavier Becerra 95.3%.
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for California in the 2026 midterms. California's governor race: Xavier Becerra (Other) leads at 95.3% (Safe (Xavier Becerra)). House: Democrats favoured in 48 and Republicans in 3 of 51 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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