Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › California
Updated November 9, 2026 at 02:01 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for California in the 2026 midterms. House: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 1 of 3 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House CA-04 | Democrat 98% | Republican 0.1% | Safe Democrat | $56.3K | race page |
| House CA-07 | Democrat 99.9%+ | Republican 0.1% | Safe Democrat | $16.1K | race page |
| House CA-23 | Tessa Lynn Hodge 2.7% | Jay Obernolte 97.3% | Safe Republican | $286.2K | race page |
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “California 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, November 9, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/california/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for California in the 2026 midterms. House: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 1 of 3 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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