Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Arizona
Updated October 13, 2026 at 01:32 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Arizona in the 2026 midterms. Arizona's governor race: Katie Hobbs (Democrat) leads at 88.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 4 of 9 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Katie Hobbs 88.5% | Andy Biggs 11.5% | Likely Democrat | $131.9K | race page |
| House AZ-01 | Amish Shah 78.5% | Jay Feely 20.5% | Lean Democrat | $65.7K | race page |
| House AZ-02 | Jonathan Nez 33.5% | Eli Crane 67.5% | Lean Republican | $10.9K | race page |
| House AZ-03 | Yassamin Ansari 99% | Republican 1.1% | Safe Democrat | $53.0K | race page |
| House AZ-04 | Greg Stanton 96% | Zuhdi Jasser 4.3% | Safe Democrat | $40.2K | race page |
| House AZ-05 | Elizabeth Lee 9.5% | Mark Lamb 91.5% | Likely Republican | $38.7K | race page |
| House AZ-06 | JoAnna Mendoza 82.5% | Juan Ciscomani 16.5% | Likely Democrat | $13.7K | race page |
| House AZ-07 | Adelita Grijalva 98.9% | Daniel Butierez 0.2% | Safe Democrat | $39.6K | race page |
| House AZ-08 | Bernadette Greene-Placentia 14% | Abraham Hamadeh 85% | Likely Republican | $16.3K | race page |
| House AZ-09 | Dani Sterbinsky 4.0% | Paul Gosar 94.5% | Likely Republican | $36.6K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Governor: Democrat 86.5% / Republican 13.5% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Arizona 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 13, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/arizona/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Arizona in the 2026 midterms. Arizona's governor race: Katie Hobbs (Democrat) leads at 88.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 4 of 9 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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