Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Arizona
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Arizona in the 2026 midterms. Arizona's governor race: Katie Hobbs (Democrat) leads at 88.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 4 of 9 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Katie Hobbs 88.5% | Andy Biggs 10.5% | Likely Democrat | $83.0K | race page |
| House AZ-01 | Amish Shah 76.5% | Jay Feely 23.5% | Lean Democrat | $62.4K | race page |
| House AZ-02 | Jonathan Nez 33.5% | Eli Crane 66.5% | Lean Republican | $4.8K | race page |
| House AZ-03 | Yassamin Ansari 98.2% | Republican 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $52.7K | race page |
| House AZ-04 | Greg Stanton 94.5% | Zuhdi Jasser 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $39.7K | race page |
| House AZ-05 | Elizabeth Lee 8.5% | Mark Lamb 91.5% | Likely Republican | $37.3K | race page |
| House AZ-06 | JoAnna Mendoza 82.5% | Juan Ciscomani 17.5% | Likely Democrat | $11.9K | race page |
| House AZ-07 | Adelita Grijalva 95.5% | Daniel Butierez 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $35.5K | race page |
| House AZ-08 | Bernadette Greene-Placentia 16.5% | Abraham Hamadeh 84% | Likely Republican | $11.5K | race page |
| House AZ-09 | Dani Sterbinsky 3.6% | Paul Gosar 94% | Likely Republican | $26.3K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Governor: Democrat 89.5% / Republican 11.5% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Arizona in the 2026 midterms. Arizona's governor race: Katie Hobbs (Democrat) leads at 88.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 4 of 9 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
Alabama · Alaska · Arkansas · California · Colorado · Connecticut · Delaware · Florida · Georgia · Hawaii · Idaho · Illinois · Indiana · Iowa · Kansas · Kentucky · Louisiana · Maine · Maryland · Massachusetts · Michigan · Minnesota · Mississippi · Missouri · Montana · Nebraska · Nevada · New Hampshire · New Jersey · New Mexico · New York · North Carolina · North Dakota · Ohio · Oklahoma · Oregon · Pennsylvania · Rhode Island · South Carolina · South Dakota · Tennessee · Texas · Utah · Vermont · Virginia · Washington · West Virginia · Wisconsin · Wyoming
Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.