Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Florida
Updated October 5, 2026 at 13:28 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Florida in the 2026 midterms. Florida's Senate race: Ashley Moody (Republican) leads at 91.5% (Likely Republican). Florida's governor race: Byron Donalds (Republican) leads at 76.5% (Lean Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 7 and Republicans in 21 of 28 districts with a market; toss-ups: FL-22.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Angie Nixon 8.5% | Ashley Moody 91.5% | Likely Republican | $162.2K | race page |
| Governor | David Jolly 23.5% | Byron Donalds 76.5% | Lean Republican | $261.5K | race page |
| House FL-01 | Gay Valimont 3.6% | Jimmy Patronis 95.5% | Safe Republican | $118.0K | race page |
| House FL-02 | Amanda Green 8.5% | Austin Rogers 90.5% | Likely Republican | $16.7K | race page |
| House FL-03 | Seth Harp 5.5% | Kat Cammack 94% | Likely Republican | $30.8K | race page |
| House FL-04 | LaShonda Holloway 14% | Aaron Bean 86% | Likely Republican | $28.8K | race page |
| House FL-05 | Rachel Grage 7.5% | John Rutherford 91.5% | Likely Republican | $17.1K | race page |
| House FL-06 | Eric Yonce 5.5% | Randy Fine 95% | Safe Republican | $26.1K | race page |
| House FL-07 | Bale Dalton 33.5% | Ryan Elijah 66.5% | Lean Republican | $25.9K | race page |
| House FL-08 | Jennifer Jenkins 4.7% | Mike Haridopolos 95.2% | Safe Republican | $33.8K | race page |
| House FL-09 | Darren Soto 29.5% | Dan Green 69.5% | Lean Republican | $23.4K | race page |
| House FL-10 | Maxwell Frost 96.8% | Republican 2.9% | Safe Democrat | $23.6K | race page |
| House FL-11 | James Pericola 11.5% | Joe Strada 87.5% | Likely Republican | $24.4K | race page |
| House FL-12 | Kimberly Overman 12.5% | Gus Bilirakis 85.5% | Likely Republican | $61.4K | race page |
| House FL-13 | Leela Gray 25.5% | Anna Paulina Luna 74.5% | Lean Republican | $12.4K | race page |
| House FL-14 | Kathy Castor 65.5% | Mike Beltran 35.5% | Lean Democrat | $54.5K | race page |
| House FL-15 | Robert People 7.7% | Laurel Lee 92.4% | Likely Republican | $33.5K | race page |
| House FL-16 | Kelly Kirschner 15.5% | Sydney Gruters 82.5% | Likely Republican | $27.2K | race page |
| House FL-17 | Matthew Montavon 5.0% | Greg Steube 94.7% | Likely Republican | $19.7K | race page |
| House FL-18 | Curtis Gibson 8.0% | Scott Franklin 92% | Likely Republican | $39.2K | race page |
| House FL-19 | Victor Arias 5.0% | Jim Schwartzel 94.5% | Likely Republican | $25.0K | race page |
| House FL-20 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz 95.5% | Brent Andersen 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $34.2K | race page |
| House FL-21 | James Martin 9.5% | Brian Mast 89.5% | Likely Republican | $15.8K | race page |
| House FL-22 | Pia Dandiya 53.5% | Casey Askar 44.5% | Toss-up | $50.1K | race page |
| House FL-23 | Lois Frankel 96.9% | Deborah Adeimy 3.2% | Safe Democrat | $26.7K | race page |
| House FL-24 | Oliver Gilbert 96.3% | Te Mayonna Brown 2.2% | Safe Democrat | $34.3K | race page |
| House FL-25 | Jared Moskowitz 75.5% | Scott Singer 25.5% | Lean Democrat | $32.4K | race page |
| House FL-26 | Nicole Locklin 14.5% | Mario Díaz-Balart 85.5% | Likely Republican | $81.0K | race page |
| House FL-27 | Eliott Rodriguez 37% | María Elvira Salazar 61% | Lean Republican | $34.4K | race page |
| House FL-28 | Phil Ehr 4.5% | Carlos Giménez 94% | Likely Republican | $58.2K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 11.5% / Republican 89.5% · Governor: Democrat 24.5% / Republican 77.5% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Florida 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 5, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/florida/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Florida in the 2026 midterms. Florida's Senate race: Ashley Moody (Republican) leads at 91.5% (Likely Republican). Florida's governor race: Byron Donalds (Republican) leads at 76.5% (Lean Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 7 and Republicans in 21 of 28 districts with a market; toss-ups: FL-22.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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