Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Florida
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Florida in the 2026 midterms. Florida's Senate race: Ashley Moody (Republican) leads at 91.5% (Likely Republican). Florida's governor race: Byron Donalds (Republican) leads at 73.5% (Lean Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 7 and Republicans in 21 of 28 districts with a market; toss-ups: FL-22.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Angie Nixon 8.5% | Ashley Moody 91.5% | Likely Republican | $128.1K | race page |
| Governor | David Jolly 26.5% | Byron Donalds 73.5% | Lean Republican | $182.7K | race page |
| House FL-01 | Gay Valimont 3.5% | Jimmy Patronis 95.5% | Safe Republican | $117.8K | race page |
| House FL-02 | Amanda Green 8.5% | Austin Rogers 90% | Likely Republican | $16.5K | race page |
| House FL-03 | Seth Harp 7.0% | Kat Cammack 93.5% | Likely Republican | $30.4K | race page |
| House FL-04 | LaShonda Holloway 11.5% | Aaron Bean 87.5% | Likely Republican | $28.4K | race page |
| House FL-05 | Rachel Grage 7.5% | John Rutherford 92.5% | Likely Republican | $16.9K | race page |
| House FL-06 | Eric Yonce 5.5% | Randy Fine 94.5% | Likely Republican | $24.3K | race page |
| House FL-07 | Bale Dalton 33.5% | Ryan Elijah 66.5% | Lean Republican | $25.4K | race page |
| House FL-08 | Jennifer Jenkins 4.5% | Mike Haridopolos 96.2% | Safe Republican | $33.7K | race page |
| House FL-09 | Darren Soto 31.5% | Dan Green 68.5% | Lean Republican | $22.0K | race page |
| House FL-10 | Maxwell Frost 96.9% | Republican 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $23.6K | race page |
| House FL-11 | James Pericola 12.5% | Joe Strada 87.5% | Likely Republican | $24.1K | race page |
| House FL-12 | Kimberly Overman 9.5% | Gus Bilirakis 86.5% | Likely Republican | $60.5K | race page |
| House FL-13 | Leela Gray 29.5% | Anna Paulina Luna 67.5% | Lean Republican | $11.6K | race page |
| House FL-14 | Kathy Castor 67.5% | Mike Beltran 32% | Lean Democrat | $49.4K | race page |
| House FL-15 | Robert People 7.7% | Laurel Lee 92.5% | Likely Republican | $31.9K | race page |
| House FL-16 | Kelly Kirschner 17.5% | Sydney Gruters 83.5% | Likely Republican | $26.7K | race page |
| House FL-17 | Matthew Montavon 6.5% | Greg Steube 94.5% | Likely Republican | $19.7K | race page |
| House FL-18 | Curtis Gibson 8.0% | Scott Franklin 91.5% | Likely Republican | $39.2K | race page |
| House FL-19 | Victor Arias 5.5% | Jim Schwartzel 94.5% | Likely Republican | $21.0K | race page |
| House FL-20 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz 95.5% | Brent Andersen 3.4% | Safe Democrat | $34.2K | race page |
| House FL-21 | James Martin 9.3% | Brian Mast 90.5% | Likely Republican | $15.7K | race page |
| House FL-22 | Pia Dandiya 53.5% | Casey Askar 45.5% | Toss-up | $47.6K | race page |
| House FL-23 | Lois Frankel 95% | Deborah Adeimy 3.6% | Safe Democrat | $24.8K | race page |
| House FL-24 | Oliver Gilbert 96% | Te Mayonna Brown 2.2% | Safe Democrat | $34.1K | race page |
| House FL-25 | Jared Moskowitz 68.5% | Scott Singer 32.5% | Lean Democrat | $30.5K | race page |
| House FL-26 | Nicole Locklin 9.5% | Mario Díaz-Balart 90.5% | Likely Republican | $66.0K | race page |
| House FL-27 | Eliott Rodriguez 34.5% | María Elvira Salazar 66.5% | Lean Republican | $29.3K | race page |
| House FL-28 | Phil Ehr 5.5% | Carlos Giménez 93.5% | Likely Republican | $57.6K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 11.5% / Republican 89.5% · Governor: Democrat 23.5% / Republican 76.5% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Florida in the 2026 midterms. Florida's Senate race: Ashley Moody (Republican) leads at 91.5% (Likely Republican). Florida's governor race: Byron Donalds (Republican) leads at 73.5% (Lean Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 7 and Republicans in 21 of 28 districts with a market; toss-ups: FL-22.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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