Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Kansas
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Kansas in the 2026 midterms. Kansas's Senate race: Roger Marshall (Republican) leads at 69.5% (Lean Republican). Kansas's governor race: Ty Masterson (Republican) leads at 73.5% (Lean Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 3 of 4 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Adam Hamilton 30.5% | Roger Marshall 69.5% | Lean Republican | $185.7K | race page |
| Governor | Cindy Holscher 27.5% | Ty Masterson 73.5% | Lean Republican | $44.6K | race page |
| House KS-01 | Lauren Reinhold 5.5% | Tracey Mann 94% | Likely Republican | $18.2K | race page |
| House KS-02 | Don Coover 12.5% | Derek Schmidt 88% | Likely Republican | $16.3K | race page |
| House KS-03 | Sharice Davids 94.5% | Eric Jenkins 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $33.0K | race page |
| House KS-04 | Katy Tyndell 6.5% | Ron Estes 92.5% | Likely Republican | $71.9K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 31% / Republican 69.5% · Governor: Democrat 29.5% / Republican 70.5% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Kansas in the 2026 midterms. Kansas's Senate race: Roger Marshall (Republican) leads at 69.5% (Lean Republican). Kansas's governor race: Ty Masterson (Republican) leads at 73.5% (Lean Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 3 of 4 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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