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Explainer · live examples updated September 25, 2026, twice a day
Price range markets split one number into brackets: Bitcoin's price on a date (under 72,000, 72,000 to 74,000 and so on), the number of posts an account makes in a week, a film's opening weekend or a video's views. Each bracket is its own yes/no market, and exactly one bracket resolves Yes once the number is known.
The end brackets are open ("under X" and "X or more"), so together the brackets cover every possible value and their Yes prices add up to about 100¢. Each price is the market's chance for that bracket; read side by side they are the market's whole forecast of the number.
180-199 22.5% · 26 live outcomes · $165.3K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 25 12:00 PM ET to October 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted …”
70-80M 87.5% · 7 live outcomes · $107.5K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast after this market's creation gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If …”
16-19m 49.4% · 6 live outcomes · $65.2K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to how much "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 25 - 27) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: Bitcoin odds · Crypto Prices odds · Elon Musk odds · Movies & Box Office odds
Work it out: overround calculator · crypto price probability calculator.
The number named in the rules is read from the source and at the time the rules give. The one bracket that contains it resolves Yes and pays $1 a share; every other bracket resolves No.
Exactly one bracket wins, so the chances across all brackets should total 100%. Small differences come from the bid-ask spreads; a total well above or below 100% is worth a look at the order books.
Up or Down markets · Crypto price markets · Tweet count markets · Temperature markets · Fed decision markets · Multi-outcome markets · “By date” markets · Yes/No markets · Mention markets · Sports game markets · Election markets · Economic data markets · Box office markets · Awards markets · Earnings markets · Stock price markets · Approval rating markets · Parlay-style markets · Long-dated markets
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