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Explainer · live examples updated November 9, 2026, twice a day
Temperature markets ask what the highest (or lowest) temperature will be in a city on a given day. The possible readings are split into ranges of a degree or two, and exactly one range wins.
Each market names the official weather station whose reading counts — often an airport station — and the unit, Fahrenheit or Celsius. Forecast updates move the prices through the day.
28°C 98.5% · 11 live outcomes · $115.6K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport (ZGSZ) on 9 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport (ZGSZ) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins …”
10°C 43.5% · 11 live outcomes · $68.6K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at London City Airport (EGLC) on 9 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for London City Airport (EGLC) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation …”
17°C 99.2% · 11 live outcomes · $60.9K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD) on 9 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Shanghai Pudong International Airport (ZSPD) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: Weather odds
To the temperature range that contains the highest (or lowest) temperature recorded on that date by the station named in the rules, in the unit the rules give.
From the source named in each market's rules — for example a national weather service's airport station.
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