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Explainer · live examples updated September 25, 2026, twice a day
Approval rating markets trade on the US president's job approval as published by one named tracker. The current markets on Donald Trump's approval use Silver Bulletin's approval rating, named in each market's rules.
They come in three shapes: a daily market with brackets for the rating on one date, yearly ladders asking how low or how high the rating will go at any point in the year, and a weekly Up or Down market comparing the rating with the week before.
<37.5 66.2% · 6 live outcomes · $716 traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on September 25, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, …”
37% 91.5% · 6 live outcomes · $179 traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is …”
Up 3.5% · 2 live outcomes · $165 traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 25, 2026, than on September 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 18, 2026, than on September 25, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: Trump odds · Politics odds · 2026 Midterms odds
The one named in each market's rules. The current markets on Donald Trump's approval use Silver Bulletin's approval rating; the source decides the result, so check it on the market you trade.
Each level is its own market. It resolves Yes if the rating from the named source is at or below that level on any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026, and No otherwise.
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