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Explainer · live examples updated September 25, 2026, twice a day
Some Polymarket markets bundle several conditions into one question, like a parlay: a "blue wave" market that needs one party to reach a House majority and a Senate seat count, a "Nothing Ever Happens" market that lists a set of events and turns on whether any of them happens, or joint outcomes such as who becomes Fed Chair together with where rates end up.
There are no separate legs to buy: the whole bundle trades as one market, priced directly by traders. When the conditions are independent its fair chance is close to the product of the separate chances; when they tend to happen together it is higher.
Yes 83% · 2 live outcomes · $3.2K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 …”
Hike–Hike–Hike 41.5% · 5 live outcomes · $2.6K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the …”
Yes 82.5% · 2 live outcomes · $1.1K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats have a seat count of 218 or more in the House - Democrats have a seat count of 49 or more in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: 2026 Midterms odds · Fed & Interest Rates odds · Geopolitics odds
Work it out: combined probability calculator.
Polymarket lists ready-made markets that combine several conditions, tagged as parlays, such as a market that needs one party to win both chambers of Congress. You buy Yes or No on the whole bundle like any other market.
Multiply the chances of the separate conditions if they are independent; if they tend to happen together, the combined chance is higher than that product. The combined probability calculator does the arithmetic.
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