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Explainer · live examples updated November 9, 2026, twice a day
Box office markets ask how much a film will earn — in its opening weekend or in total by a date — split into dollar ranges. Exactly one range wins, based on the reported figures.
Tracking numbers, Thursday previews and Friday estimates move the prices sharply through the release weekend.
400m+ 61.5% · 6 live outcomes · $17.3K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to how much "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - 20) are final (i.e., not studio …”
100-125M 65.6% · 7 live outcomes · $8.0K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to how much "You Can See Everything" box office will gross domestically by November 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (October 16, 2026) and November 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio …”
7th-9th 45% · 5 live outcomes · $913 traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final. 2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: Movies & Box Office odds · Pop Culture odds
The one named in each market's rules — typically a box office tracking site's reported figure for the stated period.
Preview and first-day numbers arrive, and they are strong predictors of the weekend total.
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