Explainer · live examples updated September 24, 2026, twice a day
The simplest Polymarket market asks a single question — “Will the US invade Iran before 2027?” — with two shares, Yes and No. The share that turns out right pays $1; the other pays nothing.
Because the two shares always add up to about $1, the Yes price is the market's probability: Yes at 15¢ means traders see about a 15% chance. Buying No at 85¢ is the same bet from the other side.
Yes 13.5% · 2 live outcomes · $197.0K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution …”
Yes 21.5% · 2 live outcomes · $176.1K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not …”
Yes 6.2% · 2 live outcomes · $108.2K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
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Winning shares can be redeemed for $1 each; losing shares are worth nothing.
Economically yes: Yes and No together always pay exactly $1, so buying No at 85¢ has the same payoff as selling Yes at 15¢.
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