Explainer · live examples updated November 9, 2026, twice a day
The simplest Polymarket market asks a single question — “Will the US invade Iran before 2027?” — with two shares, Yes and No. The share that turns out right pays $1; the other pays nothing.
Because the two shares always add up to about $1, the Yes price is the market's probability: Yes at 15¢ means traders see about a 15% chance. Buying No at 85¢ is the same bet from the other side.
Yes 12% · 2 live outcomes · $550.5K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution …”
Yes 43.5% · 2 live outcomes · $210.6K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The …”
Yes 2.1% · 2 live outcomes · $116.6K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
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Winning shares can be redeemed for $1 each; losing shares are worth nothing.
Economically yes: Yes and No together always pay exactly $1, so buying No at 85¢ has the same payoff as selling Yes at 15¢.
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