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Explainer · live examples updated November 9, 2026, twice a day
Economic data markets ask what an official statistic will show — the monthly CPI inflation rate, the jobs report, GDP growth. The possible readings are split into ranges or thresholds, and the official release decides the winner.
Prices move with forecasts and related data in the days before a release, then settle within minutes of the publication.
0.7% to 0.8% 99.6% · 5 live outcomes · $9.3K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending October 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending October 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution …”
3.5–3.9% 53.9% · 9 live outcomes · $5.4K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market …”
2.6% 86.5% · 10 live outcomes · $5.2K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: Inflation & CPI odds · US Economy odds · Fed & Interest Rates odds
The one named in the rules — usually the first official release of the stated series — not later revisions.
Most US data are published at 8:30 a.m. ET; once the number is out, the matching range goes to nearly $1.
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