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How Polymarket Economic Data Markets Work (CPI, Jobs Report, GDP)

Explainer · live examples updated September 24, 2026, twice a day

Economic data markets ask what an official statistic will show — the monthly CPI inflation rate, the jobs report, GDP growth. The possible readings are split into ranges or thresholds, and the official release decides the winner.

Prices move with forecasts and related data in the days before a release, then settle within minutes of the publication.

Live examples

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5% 17.5% · 5 live outcomes · $196 traded in 24h

Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 …”

What to check before trading

The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.

Live odds: Inflation & CPI odds · US Economy odds · Fed & Interest Rates odds

Frequently asked questions

Which release decides a Polymarket CPI market?

The one named in the rules — usually the first official release of the stated series — not later revisions.

Why do the prices jump at 8:30 a.m. Eastern?

Most US data are published at 8:30 a.m. ET; once the number is out, the matching range goes to nearly $1.

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Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice.