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Explainer · live examples updated November 9, 2026, twice a day
Earnings markets ask whether a listed company will beat Wall Street's estimate in its next quarterly report. Each market names the consensus figure for earnings per share (EPS) as of the day the market opened, and resolves Yes if the reported number is above it.
There are two shares, Yes and No. The price of Yes reads as the chance the company beats the estimate; it usually moves most in the days before the report and settles within hours of the release.
Yes 66% · 2 live outcomes · $633 traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “As of market creation, KKR is estimated to release earnings on November 9, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for KKR’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.61 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if KKR reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.61 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS …”
Yes 14.5% · 2 live outcomes · $300 traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “As of market creation, CoreWeave is estimated to release earnings on November 10, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for CoreWeave's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-1.18 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if CoreWeave reports GAAP EPS greater than $-1.18 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the …”
Yes 0.6% · 2 live outcomes · $239 traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “As of market creation, Grab is estimated to release earnings on November 17, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Grab's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.03 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Grab reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.03 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
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That the company reports earnings per share above the consensus estimate named in the market's rules, using the EPS measure and source the rules specify.
Soon after the company publishes its quarterly results, based on the figure in its official earnings documents or the fallback source named in the rules.
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