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How Polymarket Earnings Markets Work (“Will X Beat Quarterly Earnings?”)

Explainer · live examples updated September 25, 2026, twice a day

Earnings markets ask whether a listed company will beat Wall Street's estimate in its next quarterly report. Each market names the consensus figure for earnings per share (EPS) as of the day the market opened, and resolves Yes if the reported number is above it.

There are two shares, Yes and No. The price of Yes reads as the chance the company beats the estimate; it usually moves most in the days before the report and settles within hours of the release.

Live examples

Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings?

Yes 72.5% · 2 live outcomes · $891 traded in 24h

Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “As of market creation, CarMax is estimated to release earnings on September 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for CarMax's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.72 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if CarMax reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.72 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS …”

Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings?

Yes 58.5% · 2 live outcomes · $321 traded in 24h

Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “As of market creation, Accenture is estimated to release earnings on October 1, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Accenture's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.21 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Accenture reports GAAP EPS greater than $3.21 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the …”

Will Micron (MU) beat quarterly earnings?

Yes 98% · 2 live outcomes · $168 traded in 24h

Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “As of market creation, Micron is estimated to release earnings on September 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Micron’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $32.22 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Micron reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $32.22 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the …”

What to check before trading

The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.

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Frequently asked questions

What does “beat quarterly earnings” mean on Polymarket?

That the company reports earnings per share above the consensus estimate named in the market's rules, using the EPS measure and source the rules specify.

When do Polymarket earnings markets resolve?

Soon after the company publishes its quarterly results, based on the figure in its official earnings documents or the fallback source named in the rules.

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