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Explainer · live examples updated November 12, 2026, twice a day
Long-dated markets resolve more than a year from now: the 2028 presidential nominations and election, who leads a country in two years, company listings and valuations. They trade every day, so the price is the market's current chance, but your money stays in the position until the market resolves or you sell.
Waiting has a cost. A share bought at 90¢ that pays $1 in two years earns about 5.4% a year, so a favourite in a long-dated market tends to trade below its true chance. Polymarket pays holding rewards on a list of long-running markets, which offsets part of that cost.
Jon Ossoff 17.3% · 58 live outcomes · $980.0K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the …”
Jon Ossoff 26.9% · 57 live outcomes · $728.3K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.”
$1.25–$1.5T 37.2% · 10 live outcomes · $654.3K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: 2028 Presidential Election odds · Politics odds · IPOs odds
Work it out: APY calculator.
Only if the price is wrong by more than the cost of waiting. Divide the payout by the price and spread the gain over the time to resolution; the APY calculator does it with fees and holding rewards.
Yes. Shares trade until the market closes, so you can sell at the current bid at any time; the price then reflects the latest news, not the final result.
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