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New York 2026 election odds on Polymarket

Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026

Polymarket odds for New York in the 2026 midterms. New York's governor race: Kathy Hochul (Democrat) leads at 95% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 20 and Republicans in 6 of 26 districts with a market.

RaceDemocratRepublicanRatingVolume
GovernorKathy Hochul 95%Bruce Blakeman 4.5%Safe Democrat$127.1Krace page
House NY-01Chris Gallant 17%Nick LaLota 82.5%Likely Republican$45.6Krace page
House NY-02Patrick Halpin 13.5%Andrew Garbarino 86%Likely Republican$18.0Krace page
House NY-03Tom Suozzi 92%Mike LiPetri 7.5%Likely Democrat$26.6Krace page
House NY-04Laura Gillen 90.5%Jeanine Driscoll 8.1%Likely Democrat$5.8Krace page
House NY-05Gregory Meeks 97.2%George Marsh 1.0%Safe Democrat$63.9Krace page
House NY-06Grace Meng 95%Joseph Chou 5.0%Safe Democrat$24.0Krace page
House NY-07Claire Valdez 95.5%Melvin Rivera 0.7%Safe Democrat$30.4Krace page
House NY-08Hakeem Jeffries 96.7%Lewis Mizrahi 1.7%Safe Democrat$32.7Krace page
House NY-09Yvette Clarke 95.2%Joel Anabilah-Azumah 1.6%Safe Democrat$61.2Krace page
House NY-10Brad Lander 98.4%Jennifer Moore 0.4%Safe Democrat$53.9Krace page
House NY-11Michael DeCillis 7.0%Nicole Malliotakis 92.5%Likely Republican$26.2Krace page
House NY-12Micah Lasher 97.6%Caroline Shinkle 1.6%Safe Democrat$32.9Krace page
House NY-13Darializa Avila Chevalier 97.2%Jomo Williams 2.2%Safe Democrat$39.9Krace page
House NY-14Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 96%Diamant Hysenaj 3.5%Safe Democrat$55.6Krace page
House NY-15Ritchie Torres 98.5%Stylo Sapaskis 0.4%Safe Democrat$47.6Krace page
House NY-16George Latimer 96%Joseph Cinquemani 0.9%Safe Democrat$41.5Krace page
House NY-17Cait Conley 66.5%Mike Lawler 31.5%Lean Democrat$20.0Krace page
House NY-18Pat Ryan 93.3%Jacqueline Auringer 6.6%Likely Democrat$43.0Krace page
House NY-19Josh Riley 95.5%Peter Oberacker 4.9%Safe Democrat$21.8Krace page
House NY-20Paul Tonko 95.6%Ralph Ambrosio 3.6%Safe Democrat$35.4Krace page
House NY-21Blake Gendebien 20.5%Anthony Constantino 77.5%Lean Republican$71.2Krace page
House NY-22John Mannion 93.5%Kailee Buller 6.0%Likely Democrat$22.7Krace page
House NY-23Aaron Gies 4.7%Nick Langworthy 95%Likely Republican$32.3Krace page
House NY-24Alissa Ellman 6.5%Claudia Tenney 93%Likely Republican$22.7Krace page
House NY-25Joseph Morelle 95.5%Virginia McIntyre 3.4%Safe Democrat$33.1Krace page
House NY-26Tim Kennedy 95.5%Dennis Hannon 3.8%Safe Democrat$42.6Krace page

Same races on Kalshi: Governor: Democrat 94% / Republican 6.1% (midpoint of bid and ask).

Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.

National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast

Frequently asked questions

Who is favoured in New York's 2026 elections?

Polymarket odds for New York in the 2026 midterms. New York's governor race: Kathy Hochul (Democrat) leads at 95% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 20 and Republicans in 6 of 26 districts with a market.

How are the ratings set?

From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.

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