Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Arkansas
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Arkansas in the 2026 midterms. Arkansas's Senate race: Tom Cotton (Republican) leads at 94.7% (Likely Republican). Arkansas's governor race: Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Republican) leads at 97% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 4 of 4 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Hallie Shoffner 4.9% | Tom Cotton 94.7% | Likely Republican | $19.1K | race page |
| Governor | Fredrick Love 2.1% | Sarah Huckabee Sanders 97% | Safe Republican | $11.0K | race page |
| House AR-01 | Terri Green 1.2% | Rick Crawford 97.5% | Safe Republican | $26.8K | race page |
| House AR-02 | Chris Jones 16.5% | French Hill 81.5% | Likely Republican | $24.4K | race page |
| House AR-03 | Robb Ryerse 5.5% | Steve Womack 95% | Safe Republican | $17.6K | race page |
| House AR-04 | James Russell 2.1% | Bruce Westerman 97.2% | Safe Republican | $24.3K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 7.2% / Republican 92.9% · Governor: Democrat 2.8% / Republican 97.5% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Arkansas in the 2026 midterms. Arkansas's Senate race: Tom Cotton (Republican) leads at 94.7% (Likely Republican). Arkansas's governor race: Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Republican) leads at 97% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 4 of 4 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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