Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Virginia
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Virginia in the 2026 midterms. Virginia's Senate race: Mark Warner (Democrat) leads at 97.5% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 7 and Republicans in 4 of 11 districts with a market; toss-ups: VA-01.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Mark Warner 97.5% | Bert Mizusawa 1.6% | Safe Democrat | $23.6K | race page |
| House VA-01 | Shannon Taylor 41.5% | Rob Wittman 58.5% | Toss-up | $29.1K | race page |
| House VA-02 | Elaine Luria 81.5% | Jen Kiggans 18.5% | Likely Democrat | $43.8K | race page |
| House VA-03 | Bobby Scott 95.7% | Edwin Rivera 4.0% | Safe Democrat | $68.5K | race page |
| House VA-04 | Jennifer McClellan 96.7% | Robert Murray 1.7% | Safe Democrat | $41.7K | race page |
| House VA-05 | Tom Perriello 20.5% | John McGuire 80.5% | Likely Republican | $82.4K | race page |
| House VA-06 | Beth Macy 6.5% | Ben Cline 92.5% | Likely Republican | $118.5K | race page |
| House VA-07 | Eugene Vindman 93.5% | Doug Ollivant 7.0% | Likely Democrat | $12.3K | race page |
| House VA-08 | Don Beyer 95.7% | Tony Sabio 2.1% | Safe Democrat | $40.5K | race page |
| House VA-09 | Joy Powers 2.2% | Morgan Griffith 96% | Safe Republican | $66.4K | race page |
| House VA-10 | Suhas Subramanyam 94.5% | Dave Beckwith 4.3% | Likely Democrat | $7.8K | race page |
| House VA-11 | James Walkinshaw 97.5% | Arthur Purves 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $28.3K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 97.6% / Republican 2.7% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Virginia in the 2026 midterms. Virginia's Senate race: Mark Warner (Democrat) leads at 97.5% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 7 and Republicans in 4 of 11 districts with a market; toss-ups: VA-01.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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