Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Oklahoma
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Oklahoma in the 2026 midterms. Oklahoma's Senate race: Kevin Hern (Republican) leads at 96.5% (Safe Republican). Oklahoma's governor race: Mike Mazzei (Republican) leads at 93.5% (Likely Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 5 of 5 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas 3.2% | Kevin Hern 96.5% | Safe Republican | $26.2K | race page |
| Governor | Cyndi Munson 7.5% | Mike Mazzei 93.5% | Likely Republican | $31.5K | race page |
| House OK-01 | John Croisant 7.5% | Mark Tedford 93% | Likely Republican | $34.9K | race page |
| House OK-02 | Brandon Wade 1.7% | Josh Brecheen 95.5% | Safe Republican | $31.2K | race page |
| House OK-03 | Suzie Byrd 0.7% | Frank Lucas 96.9% | Safe Republican | $105.1K | race page |
| House OK-04 | Mitchell Jacob 6.0% | Tom Cole 94% | Likely Republican | $27.6K | race page |
| House OK-05 | Jena Nelson 14.5% | Stephanie Bice 84.5% | Likely Republican | $18.0K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 2.5% / Republican 97.4% · Governor: Democrat 8.6% / Republican 91.5% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Oklahoma in the 2026 midterms. Oklahoma's Senate race: Kevin Hern (Republican) leads at 96.5% (Safe Republican). Oklahoma's governor race: Mike Mazzei (Republican) leads at 93.5% (Likely Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 5 of 5 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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