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Updated November 4, 2026 at 02:00 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Hawaii in the 2026 midterms. Hawaii's governor race: Josh Green (Democrat) leads at 98.5% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 0 of 2 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Josh Green 98.5% | Gary Cordery 1.5% | Safe Democrat | $30.9K | race page |
| House HI-01 | Ed Case 97.5% | Adriel Lam 1.6% | Safe Democrat | $54.8K | race page |
| House HI-02 | Jill Tokuda 96.5% | Brenton Awa 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $86.9K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Governor: Democrat 98.4% / Republican 1.6% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Hawaii 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, November 4, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/hawaii/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Hawaii in the 2026 midterms. Hawaii's governor race: Josh Green (Democrat) leads at 98.5% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 0 of 2 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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