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Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Hawaii in the 2026 midterms. Hawaii's governor race: Josh Green (Democrat) leads at 97% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 0 of 2 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Josh Green 97% | Gary Cordery 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $16.3K | race page |
| House HI-01 | Ed Case 95.7% | Adriel Lam 3.5% | Safe Democrat | $41.2K | race page |
| House HI-02 | Jill Tokuda 94.5% | Brenton Awa 4.6% | Likely Democrat | $68.8K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Governor: Democrat 97.4% / Republican 2.8% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Hawaii in the 2026 midterms. Hawaii's governor race: Josh Green (Democrat) leads at 97% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 0 of 2 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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