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Kentucky 2026 election odds on Polymarket

Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026

Polymarket odds for Kentucky in the 2026 midterms. Kentucky's Senate race: Andy Barr (Republican) leads at 95.8% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 5 of 6 districts with a market.

RaceDemocratRepublicanRatingVolume
SenateCharles Booker 3.1%Andy Barr 95.8%Safe Republican$34.4Krace page
House KY-01Drew Williams 3.6%James Comer 96%Safe Republican$50.4Krace page
House KY-02Megan Wingfield 4.5%Brett Guthrie 95%Safe Republican$14.0Krace page
House KY-03Morgan McGarvey 95%Maria Rodriguez 4.5%Safe Democrat$40.8Krace page
House KY-04Melissa Strange 1.8%Ed Gallrein 97.1%Safe Republican$45.6Krace page
House KY-05Ned Pillersdorf 4.5%Hal Rogers 95%Safe Republican$44.7Krace page
House KY-06Zach Dembo 25.5%Ralph Alvarado 73.5%Lean Republican$36.6Krace page

Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.

National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast

Frequently asked questions

Who is favoured in Kentucky's 2026 elections?

Polymarket odds for Kentucky in the 2026 midterms. Kentucky's Senate race: Andy Barr (Republican) leads at 95.8% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 5 of 6 districts with a market.

How are the ratings set?

From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.

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