Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Kentucky
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Kentucky in the 2026 midterms. Kentucky's Senate race: Andy Barr (Republican) leads at 95.8% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 5 of 6 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Charles Booker 3.1% | Andy Barr 95.8% | Safe Republican | $34.4K | race page |
| House KY-01 | Drew Williams 3.6% | James Comer 96% | Safe Republican | $50.4K | race page |
| House KY-02 | Megan Wingfield 4.5% | Brett Guthrie 95% | Safe Republican | $14.0K | race page |
| House KY-03 | Morgan McGarvey 95% | Maria Rodriguez 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $40.8K | race page |
| House KY-04 | Melissa Strange 1.8% | Ed Gallrein 97.1% | Safe Republican | $45.6K | race page |
| House KY-05 | Ned Pillersdorf 4.5% | Hal Rogers 95% | Safe Republican | $44.7K | race page |
| House KY-06 | Zach Dembo 25.5% | Ralph Alvarado 73.5% | Lean Republican | $36.6K | race page |
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Kentucky in the 2026 midterms. Kentucky's Senate race: Andy Barr (Republican) leads at 95.8% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 5 of 6 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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