Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Pennsylvania
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Pennsylvania in the 2026 midterms. Pennsylvania's governor race: Josh Shapiro (Democrat) leads at 96.6% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 10 and Republicans in 7 of 17 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Josh Shapiro 96.6% | Stacy Garrity 2.9% | Safe Democrat | $49.9K | race page |
| House PA-01 | Bob Harvie 37.5% | Brian Fitzpatrick 62.5% | Lean Republican | $12.2K | race page |
| House PA-02 | Brendan Boyle 94.5% | Jessica Arriaga 2.8% | Likely Democrat | $39.4K | race page |
| House PA-03 | Chris Rabb 96.4% | Republican 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $33.6K | race page |
| House PA-04 | Madeleine Dean 94.5% | Aurora Stuski 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $21.5K | race page |
| House PA-05 | Mary Gay Scanlon 98.7% | Nicholas Manganaro 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $37.2K | race page |
| House PA-06 | Chrissy Houlahan 96.9% | Marty Young 1.8% | Safe Democrat | $38.1K | race page |
| House PA-07 | Bob Brooks 79.5% | Ryan Mackenzie 20.5% | Lean Democrat | $32.3K | race page |
| House PA-08 | Paige Cognetti 65.5% | Rob Bresnahan 34.5% | Lean Democrat | $9.1K | race page |
| House PA-09 | Rachel Wallace 3.6% | Dan Meuser 96.2% | Safe Republican | $22.2K | race page |
| House PA-10 | Janelle Stelson 79.5% | Scott Perry 21% | Lean Democrat | $6.2K | race page |
| House PA-11 | Nancy Mannion 6.8% | Lloyd Smucker 92.4% | Likely Republican | $27.6K | race page |
| House PA-12 | Summer Lee 96.5% | James Hayes 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $24.2K | race page |
| House PA-13 | Beth Farnham 3.9% | John Joyce 96.7% | Safe Republican | $17.8K | race page |
| House PA-14 | Alan Bradstock 5.5% | Guy Reschenthaler 94.5% | Likely Republican | $27.4K | race page |
| House PA-15 | Ray Bilger 5.0% | Glenn Thompson 95.5% | Safe Republican | $29.6K | race page |
| House PA-16 | Justin Wagner 7.7% | Mike Kelly 91% | Likely Republican | $40.3K | race page |
| House PA-17 | Chris Deluzio 94.5% | Tony Guy 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $20.6K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Governor: Democrat 97.4% / Republican 2.9% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for Pennsylvania in the 2026 midterms. Pennsylvania's governor race: Josh Shapiro (Democrat) leads at 96.6% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 10 and Republicans in 7 of 17 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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