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Pennsylvania 2026 election odds on Polymarket

Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026

Polymarket odds for Pennsylvania in the 2026 midterms. Pennsylvania's governor race: Josh Shapiro (Democrat) leads at 96.6% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 10 and Republicans in 7 of 17 districts with a market.

RaceDemocratRepublicanRatingVolume
GovernorJosh Shapiro 96.6%Stacy Garrity 2.9%Safe Democrat$49.9Krace page
House PA-01Bob Harvie 37.5%Brian Fitzpatrick 62.5%Lean Republican$12.2Krace page
House PA-02Brendan Boyle 94.5%Jessica Arriaga 2.8%Likely Democrat$39.4Krace page
House PA-03Chris Rabb 96.4%Republican 2.5%Safe Democrat$33.6Krace page
House PA-04Madeleine Dean 94.5%Aurora Stuski 4.5%Likely Democrat$21.5Krace page
House PA-05Mary Gay Scanlon 98.7%Nicholas Manganaro 0.4%Safe Democrat$37.2Krace page
House PA-06Chrissy Houlahan 96.9%Marty Young 1.8%Safe Democrat$38.1Krace page
House PA-07Bob Brooks 79.5%Ryan Mackenzie 20.5%Lean Democrat$32.3Krace page
House PA-08Paige Cognetti 65.5%Rob Bresnahan 34.5%Lean Democrat$9.1Krace page
House PA-09Rachel Wallace 3.6%Dan Meuser 96.2%Safe Republican$22.2Krace page
House PA-10Janelle Stelson 79.5%Scott Perry 21%Lean Democrat$6.2Krace page
House PA-11Nancy Mannion 6.8%Lloyd Smucker 92.4%Likely Republican$27.6Krace page
House PA-12Summer Lee 96.5%James Hayes 3.1%Safe Democrat$24.2Krace page
House PA-13Beth Farnham 3.9%John Joyce 96.7%Safe Republican$17.8Krace page
House PA-14Alan Bradstock 5.5%Guy Reschenthaler 94.5%Likely Republican$27.4Krace page
House PA-15Ray Bilger 5.0%Glenn Thompson 95.5%Safe Republican$29.6Krace page
House PA-16Justin Wagner 7.7%Mike Kelly 91%Likely Republican$40.3Krace page
House PA-17Chris Deluzio 94.5%Tony Guy 5.5%Likely Democrat$20.6Krace page

Same races on Kalshi: Governor: Democrat 97.4% / Republican 2.9% (midpoint of bid and ask).

Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.

National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast

Frequently asked questions

Who is favoured in Pennsylvania's 2026 elections?

Polymarket odds for Pennsylvania in the 2026 midterms. Pennsylvania's governor race: Josh Shapiro (Democrat) leads at 96.6% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 10 and Republicans in 7 of 17 districts with a market.

How are the ratings set?

From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.

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