Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › New Mexico
Updated November 4, 2026 at 02:00 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for New Mexico in the 2026 midterms. New Mexico's Senate race: Ben Ray Luján (Democrat) leads at 98.9% (Safe Democrat). New Mexico's governor race: Deb Haaland (Democrat) leads at 97.2% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 0 of 3 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Ben Ray Luján 98.9% | Larry Marker 1.2% | Safe Democrat | $36.6K | race page |
| Governor | Deb Haaland 97.2% | Gregg Hull 2.9% | Safe Democrat | $146.7K | race page |
| House NM-01 | Melanie Stansbury 96.9% | Didi Okpareke 1.0% | Safe Democrat | $46.6K | race page |
| House NM-02 | Gabe Vasquez 92.4% | Greg Cunningham 4.3% | Likely Democrat | $91.0K | race page |
| House NM-03 | Teresa Leger Fernández 97.2% | Martin Zamora 2.6% | Safe Democrat | $55.3K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 99% / Republican 1.1% · Governor: Democrat 95.8% / Republican 4.1% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “New Mexico 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, November 4, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/new-mexico/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for New Mexico in the 2026 midterms. New Mexico's Senate race: Ben Ray Luján (Democrat) leads at 98.9% (Safe Democrat). New Mexico's governor race: Deb Haaland (Democrat) leads at 97.2% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 0 of 3 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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