Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › New Mexico
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for New Mexico in the 2026 midterms. New Mexico's Senate race: Ben Ray Luján (Democrat) leads at 97% (Safe Democrat). New Mexico's governor race: Deb Haaland (Democrat) leads at 95.5% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 0 of 3 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Ben Ray Luján 97% | Larry Marker 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $26.0K | race page |
| Governor | Deb Haaland 95.5% | Gregg Hull 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $39.7K | race page |
| House NM-01 | Melanie Stansbury 93.5% | Didi Okpareke 6.0% | Likely Democrat | $36.7K | race page |
| House NM-02 | Gabe Vasquez 94.5% | Greg Cunningham 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $54.4K | race page |
| House NM-03 | Teresa Leger Fernández 96.5% | Martin Zamora 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $51.8K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 97.4% / Republican 2.5% · Governor: Democrat 93% / Republican 6.9% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for New Mexico in the 2026 midterms. New Mexico's Senate race: Ben Ray Luján (Democrat) leads at 97% (Safe Democrat). New Mexico's governor race: Deb Haaland (Democrat) leads at 95.5% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 0 of 3 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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