Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › South Dakota
Updated September 24, 2026 at 17:34 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for South Dakota in the 2026 midterms. South Dakota's Senate race: Mike Rounds (Republican) leads at 95.2% (Safe Republican). South Dakota's governor race: Larry Rhoden (Republican) leads at 95.9% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 1 of 1 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Democrat 0.1% | Mike Rounds 95.2% | Safe Republican | $35.0K | race page |
| Governor | Dan Ahlers 3.5% | Larry Rhoden 95.9% | Safe Republican | $26.6K | race page |
| House SD-AL | Nikki Gronli 3.6% | Marty Jackley 95% | Safe Republican | $32.1K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 0.4% / Republican 92.1% · Governor: Democrat 2.8% / Republican 97.7% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
Polymarket odds for South Dakota in the 2026 midterms. South Dakota's Senate race: Mike Rounds (Republican) leads at 95.2% (Safe Republican). South Dakota's governor race: Larry Rhoden (Republican) leads at 95.9% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 1 of 1 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
Alabama · Alaska · Arizona · Arkansas · California · Colorado · Connecticut · Delaware · Florida · Georgia · Hawaii · Idaho · Illinois · Indiana · Iowa · Kansas · Kentucky · Louisiana · Maine · Maryland · Massachusetts · Michigan · Minnesota · Mississippi · Missouri · Montana · Nebraska · Nevada · New Hampshire · New Jersey · New Mexico · New York · North Carolina · North Dakota · Ohio · Oklahoma · Oregon · Pennsylvania · Rhode Island · South Carolina · Tennessee · Texas · Utah · Vermont · Virginia · Washington · West Virginia · Wisconsin · Wyoming
Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.